Saturday, August 22, 2015

2015 Nebula Draft Grades

Rated by Football Guys.com





Old school!
We like your overall strength at the traditionally less important positions, but make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be the league favorite or very close to it. Somewhere Terrell Davis is smiling.
Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. 
Players we particularly like on this team include Joseph Randle, Torrey Smith, T.J. Yeldon, and Brandon LaFell. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
We expect Russell Wilson to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Cam Newton, who we have rated as the #13 QB, should be a fine backup.
Nice work here at RB. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 1.0 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have LeVeon Bell ranked at #2 and LeSean McCoy ranked 12th.
Your bench also looks good. We love Joseph Randle as a third running back; he's a likely flex starter. T.J. Yeldon will also be among the best RB4s in the league. Tough to do better than Tevin Coleman at RB5. Tre Mason will also be among the best RB6s in the league.
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. DeAndre Hopkins is our #12 ranked receiver, Allen Robinson is #26, and we have Eric Decker 31st.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Brandon LaFell should be a good fourth receiver. Torrey Smith is also a very nice WR5. DeVante Parker is a little below average as a sixth receiver. But Breshad Perriman should be a very good seventh receiver.
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 4.1 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Travis Kelce is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.
OVERALL 90/100



Overview:
This team is built around strong quarterback play. But it has some serious issues post-draft. Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your weaknesses at both running back and receiver put you in a hole before any games have played. To end up with a team constructed like this, you probably did not get value on some of your selections. The players themselves are not necessarily bad --- you just might have paid more than what they were worth.
Players we particularly like on this team include Ben Roethlisberger, Anquan Boldin, and Ryan Tannehill. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
We expect Ben Roethlisberger to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #3 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Ryan Tannehill, who we have rated as the #11 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Roethlisberger plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Depth is a serious concern at RB, but we do like your starting group, particularly Lamar Miller as a second running back. Our projections have Marshawn Lynch ranked sixth and Miller ranked at #14.
Joique Bell is a little below average as a third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Danny Woodhead also looks somewhat weak as a fourth RB. Not only do we like Ryan Mathews as a fifth running back, we love that you stole him from the DeMarco Murray owner.
While your lack of depth at the WR position concerns us, we do like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 1.5 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Demaryius Thomas is our third ranked WR, Mike Evans is #11, and we have Golden Tate 20th.
Anquan Boldin should serve as a very solid fourth receiver. But we are not at all excited about Kenny Stills as a fifth WR.
With only Heath Miller, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.
OVERALL 55/100


Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
Players we particularly like on this team include Jamaal Charles, Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Garcon, and Vincent Jackson. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
We have Drew Brees rated #8 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB.
Nice work at RB. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.0 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Jamaal Charles ranked at #3 and Matt Forte ranked ninth.
Your bench also looks good. Jonathan Stewart should serve as a very solid third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Shane Vereen should be adequate at RB4. Darren McFadden is a little below average as a fifth running back. We do, however, like the selection of Knile Davis. And not only as a handcuff to Jamaal Charles; we think he's a fine sixth running back in his own right. Reggie Bush looks great as a seventh running back. We also very much approve of the selection of DeAngelo Williams, and not just because you can hold the LeVeon Bell owner hostage. He's a fine eighth running back in his own right.
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Alshon Jeffery is our 13th ranked WR, Emmanuel Sanders is #14, and we have Julian Edelman 24th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Vincent Jackson looks great as a fourth receiver. Larry Fitzgerald is also a very nice WR5. Pierre Garcon looks great as a sixth receiver. But Phillip Dorsett is out of his league as a seventh WR.
Zach Ertz is viable but below average as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #7). We're also not too fired up about Owen Daniels as a backup.
OVERALL 55/100



In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Adrian Peterson, Isaiah Crowell, Kendall Wright, and Jordan Matthews. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
We have Peyton Manning rated #6 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Sam Bradford (ranked #14 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Manning turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Adrian Peterson as a top running back. Our projections have Peterson ranked at #1 and Melvin Gordon ranked at #17.
Your bench also looks good. LeGarrette Blount should be a good third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Ameer Abdullah is also a very nice RB4. We love Isaiah Crowell as a fifth running back.
our starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Randall Cobb as a second receiver. We figure them at a combined 2.3 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our #7 ranked receiver, Cobb is #9, and we have Jordan Matthews 15th.
Your bench also looks good. DeSean Jackson looks great as a fourth receiver. Likewise, Jeremy Maclin should be excellent at WR5. Tough to do better than Kendall Wright at WR6. But Kelvin Benjamin is out of his league as a seventh WR.
Jordan Cameron is just OK as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #9). So the selection of Julius Thomas, who we see as a solid backup, was wise.
OVERALL 80/100






Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
We have Tom Brady rated #17 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. And we don't think Carson Palmer (ranked #23 among quarterbacks) is even a viable backup.

Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like C.J. Anderson as a top RB. Our projections have Anderson ranked fifth and Frank Gore ranked 16th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We love Latavius Murray as a third running back; he's a likely flex starter. We also see Devonta Freeman as an above average RB4. Not only do we like C.J. Spiller as a fifth running back, we love that you stole him from the Mark Ingram owner. David Cobb is practically criminal at RB6.
We like Antonio Brown as a top WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Brown is our #1 ranked receiver, Brandon Marshall is #21, and we have John Brown 36th.
Jarvis Landry is a little below average as a fourth receiver. But Nelson Agholor should be a fairly good WR5. Devin Funchess should serve as a very solid sixth receiver.

OVERALL 50/100





We think you're looking good at quarterback and running back. The receiver corps is a concern though.
The good news is that, of all of the weaknesses to have, this one is usually the most survivable. At receiver, it's often relatively easy to find fill-in guys on a weekly basis until a better player emerges during the season.
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #2 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 3.2 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
Our projections don't show Joe Flacco as being a top-notch backup, but the issue will be moot as long as Rodgers stays healthy.
Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Mark Ingram as a second RB. Our projections have Jeremy Hill ranked seventh and Ingram ranked at #11.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Andre Ellington should serve as a very solid third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Rashad Jennings should also be solidly above average at RB4. We love Arian Foster as a fifth running back. We also very much approve of the selection of Chris Johnson, and not just as insurance for Andre Ellington. He's a fine sixth running back in his own right.
We like Jordy Nelson as a top WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Nelson is our sixth ranked WR, Martavis Bryant is #27, and we have Charles Johnson 37th.
Michael Floyd is a little below average as a fourth receiver. Victor Cruz is also a fair-to-middlin' fifth receiver. Marques Colston should serve as a very solid sixth receiver.
Overall: 65/100



Old school!
We like your overall strength at the traditionally less important positions, but make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be a legitimate contender. Somewhere Terrell Davis is smiling.
Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. 
We have Tony Romo rated #5 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #10-rated QB, Eli Manning, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 1.0 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Eddie Lacy ranked at #4 and Justin Forsett ranked 10th.
Alfred Morris looks great as a third running back; he's a likely flex starter. Chris Ivory will also be among the best RB4s in the league. David Johnson is a very weak fifth running back.
Depth is a serious concern, but we do like your starting group, particularly Julio Jones as a top receiver. Jones is our second ranked WR, Brandin Cooks is #16, and we have Andre Johnson 18th.
Mike Wallace should serve as a very solid fourth receiver. Steve Smith should also be solidly above average at WR5. We don't particularly like Eddie Royal as a sixth receiver.
Greg Olsen should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. Dwayne Allen is a nice backup.
Overall 75/100



Your receivers are the strongest part of this team and you look good at tight end as well. While no team can be expected to be above average at all three core positions (QB/RB/WR), you are in the precarious position of being a bit weak at two of them.
Although you should not be counted out yet, you may need to be active on both the waiver wire and in trades to turn this team into a legitimate contender.
We have Matt Ryan rated #7 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. Philip Rivers, our #12 quarterback, should be solid as a backup, but we're not sure if he can hold down the fort as a starter if circumstances force him to be one.
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Carlos Hyde ranked 20th and Doug Martin ranked 27th.
We may not love Giovani Bernard at third RB, but we like the fact that you can hold the Jeremy Hill owner hostage. Bishop Sankey is shaky as a fourth running back. We see Darren Sproles as an average fifth running back.
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 6.0 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Dez Bryant is our #4 ranked receiver, Odell Beckham Jr is #5, and we have T.Y. Hilton 10th.
Your bench also looks good. Amari Cooper looks great as a fourth receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Roddy White will also be among the best WR5s in the league. We see Davante Adams as an average sixth receiver.
As you are well aware, Jimmy Graham is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 1.1 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We don't see Antonio Gates as an adequate second tight end. An upgrade here would be nice, but if Graham holds up, it won't matter.
Overall 65/100






This team is built around strong quarterback play. But it has some serious issues post-draft. Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your weaknesses at both running back and receiver put you in a hole before any games have played. To end up with a team constructed like this, you probably did not get value on some of your selections. The players themselves are not necessarily bad --- you just might have paid more than what they were worth.
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Andrew Luck should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 3.9 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
We also love Matthew Stafford as a backup. In fact, we think he's good enough to be someone's starting quarterback in this league. With Luck in place as your starter, he's something of a luxury for you. 
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have DeMarco Murray ranked at #8 and Todd Gurley ranked at #23.
Duke Johnson is a very weak third running back. Alfred Blue also figures to be a bit iffy as a fourth RB.
We like Keenan Allen as a third WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. A.J. Green is our #8 ranked receiver, Sammy Watkins is #19, and we have Allen 22nd.
We don't particularly like Terrance Williams as a fourth receiver; he's a likely flex starter. Cecil Shorts is also a liability at fifth receiver. Jaelen Strong is a very weak sixth receiver.
Jason Witten is viable but below average as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #8). We're also not too fired up about Josh Hill as a backup.
Overall 35/100







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