Thursday, August 16, 2012

UPDATED: 2012 Nebula Draft Grades

2012 eSFL Nebula Conference Draft Review

: Commissioner Draft Grades

: Nebula Conference

Normally once the eSFL draft has finished the commissioner and several correspondents write a post draft piece on the teams and how their draft went. However, with the unique situation this year with two conferences the commissioner has decided that outside sources will be used to rate a teams draft. Once both conferences have drafted you can bet eSFL correspondents get involved in the act..
Team by team analysis:

: Miami Brownskins

eSFL Commissioner rating: C-

Your team is currently being rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Aaron Rodgers
RB: Ahmad Bradshaw, LeGarrette Blount
WR: Roddy White, Percy Harvin, DeSean Jackson, Randy Moss
TE: Jimmy Graham
PK:
Overview:
We'll start by complimenting you on your strength at quarterback, receiver, and tight end. As you know, it's very difficult in a competitive league to assemble a team that is strong at QB, RB, and WR, so just about every team will have a weakness. As you probably suspect, we perceive yours to be at running back.
In 2012, that's not an instant fantasy team killer like it might have been five years ago. And in this particular case, we absolutely think you're strong enough elsewhere to overcome it. You've definitely got a good team here, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to keeping an eye out for the 2012 version of 2010's Peyton Hillis or LeGarrette Blount or 2009's Ricky Williams, Jamaal Charles, or Fred Jackson.
Players we particularly like on this team include Percy Harvin, Roddy White, and DeSean Jackson. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 84 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 5.9 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
Despite your strong starting quarterback, we strongly recommend taking a backup.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Ahmad Bradshaw ranked eighth and LeGarrette Blount ranked 61st.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit.
We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
LeGarrette Blount is ranked #27 by some of our writers. Heath Cummings reasons, "I'm not quite as ready as everyone else to hand LeGarrete Blount's job to Doug Martin. I'm sure Martin will get plenty of opportunities, but so will Blount, especially early on. We've seen plenty of evidence in the past to show how risky rookie running backs can be, so don't totally give up on Blount just yet."

WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.9 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Roddy White is our #4 ranked receiver, Percy Harvin is #8, and we have DeSean Jackson 23rd.
We see Randy Moss as an average fourth receiver.

TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Jimmy Graham is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 4.4 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Graham, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Dlugiewicz Fight'n Polacks

eSFL Commissioner rating: D+

This team was rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Ray Rice, Toby Gerhart
WR: Victor Cruz, Marques Colston, Laurent Robinson
TE: Tony Gonzalez
PK:
Overview:
Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver).
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You essentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Quarterbacks like Cam Newton last season, Michael Vick in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007 could all be had cheap just after draft time. You are likely going to need to land many of this year's top waiver plays to make any significant noise, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Ray Rice and Cam Newton. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 19 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We expect Cam Newton to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Despite your strong starting quarterback, we recommend taking a backup.

RB Summary:
Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Ray Rice as a top RB. Our projections have Rice ranked first and Toby Gerhart ranked at #45.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Toby Gerhart as high as #33. Jason Wood's take: "Adrian Peterson is talking a good game, but I have my doubts about whether he'll really be ready to contribute in the first few weeks of the season. Gerhart showed last year he's a fantasy commodity when given enough touches, and at worst you can ride the hot hand in the early weeks and swap him out of your lineup if Peterson really does make it back to full strength."

WR Summary:
We like Marques Colston as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Victor Cruz is our #12 ranked receiver, Colston is #18, and we have Laurent Robinson 54th.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Victor Cruz is ranked #6 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first receiver. Mark Wimer reasons, "I think 2011 (82/1536/9) was just the beginning for Cruz - with Mario Manningham out of the picture in New York he could easily see 100 receptions, which should translate into 1,400+ yards even if his lofty 18.7 average yards per catch comes back down to a more usual average over the coming season. I've got him down for 85-90 receptions for 1,400-1,500 yards and nine-to-ten TDs heading into OTA's/mini-camp season. The foot injury to Hakeem Nicks and conflicting reports about when he'll be ready are other reasons to be bullish on Cruz's 2012 upside."
Some members of our staff have Laurent Robinson ranked as high as 34th, which would make him a fine third receiver. Jeff Haseley defends his high ranking as follows: "Laurent Robinson is rising up my rankings. He outplayed Miles Austin and Dez Bryant at times last year with Dallas and now has the chance to be the go-to WR threat for the upstart Jaguars. People will shy away from him for two reasons. They are concerned that the Jaguars passing game will continue to be one of the league's worst or they believe Justin Blackmon will be the team's primary WR. I am confident that Robinson will be the WR you want on the Jaguars this year. Like Brandon Lloyd, It took him a few years to break out, but he did so in Dallas and I believe it will continue this year in Jacksonville. He has confidence along with experience that should make him the go-to WR for Blaine Gabbert. "

TE Summary:
Tony Gonzalez, who we have ranked #9, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Gonzalez, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Tony Gonzalez is ranked #4 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jeff Pasquino reasons, "Gonzalez does not have a ton left in the tank, but even an older veteran tight end who is destined for the Hall of Fame is better than most younger options in the league. Gonzalez can work defenses to get open and find soft spots in the secondary, settle down in them and catch 10-15 yard gainers for QB Matt Ryan, especially in key situations. Gonzalez offers little yards after the catch but he is still good enough to catch 70+ balls and score a half-dozen or so touchdowns this year. He's always in great shape and has missed just one game in 10 years."

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Money Team

eSFL Commissioner rating: A+

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger
RB: Arian Foster, Doug Martin, Peyton Hillis, Felix Jones
WR: A.J. Green, Dez Bryant, Mike Wallace, Titus Young, Nate Washington
TE: Jason Witten
PK:
Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
For this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Cam Newton could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2009 it was Brett Favre; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Jason Witten, Dez Bryant, Doug Martin, Felix Jones, Nate Washington, Ben Roethlisberger, and Titus Young. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line: This team is a virtual lock to go to the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Tony Romo rated #8 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #12-rated QB, Ben Roethlisberger, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.
Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
NYG | SEA | OAK | CHI | PHI | TEN | CAR | NYG | NYG | PHI | CLE | WAS | PHI | SD | DAL | NO
A quick note about the same-team hookups (Romo/Dez Bryant and Romo/Jason Witten) you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.

RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 6.2 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Arian Foster ranked at #2 and Doug Martin ranked 14th.
We may not love Peyton Hillis at third RB, but we like the fact that you can hold the Jamaal Charles owner hostage.
Felix Jones is a solid depth pick.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Peyton Hillis is ranked #24 by some of our writers, which would make him a great third running back and even a legitimate RB2. Mark Wimer reasons, "Hillis has to prove his worth during a one-year contract in Kansas City - but he's got to split time and touches with Jamaal Charles. I think Hillis will be the junior member of this running back by committee, limiting his upside, much as we saw with Thomas Jones in previous seasons. "

WR Summary:
Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Dez Bryant as a second receiver. We figure them at a combined 2.5 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. A.J. Green is our sixth ranked WR, Bryant is #10, and we have Mike Wallace 16th.
Your bench also looks good. Titus Young should serve as a very solid fourth receiver.
Nate Washington is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.
As we mentioned earlier, the QB/receiver hookup tends to make your team a little more inconsistent. But that's not the case with the Bryant/Jason Witten pair you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more consistent if anything.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have A.J. Green as high as #2, which would make him an above average first receiver. Jason Wood's take: "A.J. Green made the NFL transition look much easier than most wide receivers do. To say he's mature beyond his years would be an understatement, and history tells us that players of his caliber don't peak as rookies. Green could cement himself as one of the league's best receivers this year -- and should be a fantasy WR1 for many seasons to come."

TE Summary:
Jason Witten should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fourth overall at the position. Given your league rules and the presence of Witten, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Orange Crush

eSFL Commissioner rating: C-

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Tom Brady, Andy Dalton
RB: Darren Sproles, Frank Gore, Michael Bush
WR: Steve Smith, Antonio Brown, Malcom Floyd
TE: Vernon Davis
PK: David Akers
Overview:
This team is built around strong quarterback play. But it has some issues post-draft. Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your relative lack of strength at running back and receiver have the potential to make things challenging for you.
To turn this team into a top contender, you might need to be an active player on the waiver wire and in league trade talks. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. You would benefit from landing some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 54 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Klimko K's

eSFL Commissioner rating: D+

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Michael Vick
RB: LeSean McCoy, Ryan Mathews, Adrian Peterson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Willis McGahee, Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams
WR: Denarius Moore, Robert Meachem, Santana Moss
TE:
PK:
Overview:
Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 35 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 8 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Michael Vick rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB.
A quick note about the same-team Vick/LeSean McCoy duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.

RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have LeSean McCoy ranked at #3 and Ryan Mathews ranked at #16.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Adrian Peterson at RB3.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than three players here. Of your remaining guys, we like BenJarvus Green-Ellis the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
Again, the same-team aspect of the Mathews/Robert Meachem duo does not concern us.

WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Denarius Moore is our #24 ranked receiver, Robert Meachem is #35, and we have Santana Moss 53rd.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.

TE Summary:
Late arrival at draft left this position in flux?

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: McKevitt Meatstyx

eSFL Commissioner rating: C+

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Eli Manning
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Mark Ingram, Roy Helu, Stevan Ridley, Ben Tate, Jahvid Best
WR: Andre Johnson, Brandon Lloyd, Santonio Holmes, Lance Moore
TE:
PK:
Overview:
Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver).
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Quarterbacks like Cam Newton last season, Michael Vick in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007 could all be had cheap just after draft time. You are likely going to need to land many of this year's top waiver plays to make any significant noise, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc. Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 23 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Eli Manning rated #9 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB.

RB Summary:
Your starting running backs should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Steven Jackson as a second RB. Our projections have Maurice Jones-Drew ranked 11th and Jackson ranked 13th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Not only do we like Mark Ingram as a third running back, we love that you stole him from the Darren Sproles owner.
Though some teams will probably be content to roster as few as three players here, it was not a bad idea to take a few extras because you're not particularly strong overall at the position. Of your remaining guys, we like Roy Helu the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.

WR Summary:
We like Andre Johnson as a top WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Johnson is our #5 ranked receiver, Brandon Lloyd is #29, and we have Santonio Holmes 32nd.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Lance Moore should be a good fourth receiver.

TE Summary:
With only Dallas Clark, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Standout Coalition

eSFL Commissioner rating: C+

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Drew Brees
RB: Fred Jackson, Shonn Greene, Kevin Smith, David Wilson
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Sidney Rice, Vincent Brown
TE: Rob Gronkowski, Brandon Pettigrew
PK:
Overview:
The quarterback position looks good, and we like your overall strength at the tradionally less important positions as well. But it has some serious issues post-draft. Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your weaknesses at both running back and receiver put you in a hole before any games have played. To end up with a team constructed like this, you probably did not get value on some of your selections. The players themselves are not necessarily bad --- you just might have paid more than what they were worth.
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Drew Brees should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #3 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 2.8 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
Despite your strong starting quarterback, we strongly recommend taking a backup.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Fred Jackson ranked at #15 and Shonn Greene ranked 24th.
We see Kevin Smith as an average third running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced David Wilson is the right player for the job.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Fred Jackson is ranked #7 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine first running back. Mark Wimer reasons, "Fred Jackson was dominant last year before breaking his leg, but his time off the field let C.J. Spiller assert his worth as a back. The team has a great problem (two quality running backs), but in fantasy terms a running back by committee situation holds both Jackson and Spiller back from being top fantasy prospects. This situation begs for a 'handcuff' drafting approach, in my opinion. If I had Jackson, I'd want to be sure of having Spiller as well. "
Shonn Greene is ranked #14 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average second running back. Mark Wimer reasons, "He is going to get a lot of carries, but his relative lack of scoring (two, two, and six rushing TDs the last three years) forces him down my board. In some good news, though, Greene has seen an increased number of passing targets (4, 24, 41) and receptions (0, 16, 30) in each of his seasons, making him viable as a running back #2 in the PPR paradigm. He is expected to see a heavy diet of touches for the Jets this year as their 'grinder' back. "
David Wilson is ranked #25 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Wilson will add excitement to the Giant offense. New York has supported two two good fantasy backs in the past and could do so again this year. I expect the rookie to overtake Bradshaw at some point this year. His speed will add a new diminsion to the Giant offense. Also, let's remember that Bradshaw has experienced foot problems often over the past few years. "

WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Demaryius Thomas is our 17th ranked WR, Eric Decker is #28, and we have Sidney Rice 50th.
Vincent Brown is a very weak fourth receiver.
A quick note about the same-team Thomas/Eric Decker and Decker/Demaryius Thomas duos you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Demaryius Thomas as high as #7, which would make him a fine first receiver. Jeff Haseley's take: "There are two WRs that I can see making the jump to a Top 5 ranking that may not be expected to reach those heights. One is Brandon Marshall. The other is Demaryius Thomas. If Thomas can be a legit WR threat with Tim Tebow at QB, imagine what he can bring to the table with Peyton Manning."
Eric Decker is ranked #16 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average second receiver. Jason Wood reasons, "Decker was a top-tier fantasy starter last year when Kyle Orton was under center, but fell off the map with Tim Tebow. Peyton Manning is the tonic for what ails Decker, and you can be sure that Decker's combination of size and disciplined route running will make him one of Manning's favorites."
Sidney Rice is ranked #29 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average third receiver. Steve Holloway reasons, "Extremely talented wide receiver who has only one season in five where he played all 16 games. That year, he had 83 catches for 1,312 yards and 8 TDs. However, in none of his other years has he topped 500 receiving yards. Boom or bust selection at ADP of WR36."
Some members of our staff have Vincent Brown ranked as high as 45th, which would make him a fine fourth receiver. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "A number of scouts I respect have told me Brown is the best receiver on the Chargers roster. I'm not willing to go that far, yet, but it's fair to say that Robert Meachem is unproven in his new role as the go-to guy and Malcom Floyd can never stay healthy for a full season. Given Rivers' accuracy, Brown has an opportunity to emerge later this season. He's someone to target in deep leagues or to keep on a short list for early waiver claims."

TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 3.7 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. We also think Brandon Pettigrew is a starting quality tight end in this league. He's a luxury.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: West Virginia Venom

eSFL Commissioner rating: B+

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Peyton Manning, Josh Freeman
RB: Pierre Thomas, Chris Wells, Rashard Mendenhall
WR: Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings, Wes Welker
TE: Aaron Hernandez, Greg Olsen
PK:
Overview:
Your receivers are the strongest part of this team and you look good at tight end as well. While no team can be expected to be above average at all three core positions (QB/RB/WR), you are in the precarious position of being a bit weak at two of them.
Although you should not be counted out yet, you may need to be active on both the waiver wire and in trades to turn this team into a legitimate contender. The best way to achieve that might be to sacrifice some of your wide receiver strength to gain multiple players than can help your roster now. It's generally easier finding quarterbacks and wide receivers on the waiver wire than quality running backs.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Likewise, running backs like Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Tolbert all could be had dirt cheap at the draft or shortly after. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Aaron Hernandez and Greg Olsen. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 50 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 29 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Peyton Manning rated #11 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. Josh Freeman, our #16 quarterback, should be solid as a backup, but we're not sure if he can hold down the fort as a starter if circumstances force him to be one.
Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
CAR | NYG | DAL | OAK | NE | SD | NO | NO | OAK | SD | SD | ATL | DEN | OAK | NO | CLE

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Pierre Thomas ranked at #31 and Chris Wells ranked 40th.
Rashard Mendenhall is a very weak third running back.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Pierre Thomas is ranked #29 by some of our writers. Jason Wood reasons, "I was all in on Mark Ingram last year, and cost myself and many friends and subscribers dearly. With Ingram having yet another knee procedure, I can't count on him for much until I see him deliver. While Darren Sproles will be the PPR play in New Orleans, Thomas is going to see plenty of touches, and TD opportunities."
Chris Wells is ranked #24 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second running back. Anthony Borbely reasons, "Wells always seems to be hurt, but despite being banged up again last year, he racked up over 1000 rushing yards and 10 TDs. He had knee surgery and may not be ready for training camp, but should be good to go for the regular season. Expect low-end RB2 numbers with upside and mid-RB3 numbers in PPR. "
Rashard Mendenhall is ranked #37 by some of our writers. Steve Holloway reasons, "Mendenhall could be the later round pick that you stash for the first few weeks of the season and reap nice rewards down the stretch. He is the perfect dynasty value purchase as his cost is at an all time low."

WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 7.1 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our #1 ranked receiver, Greg Jennings is #7, and we have Wes Welker 11th.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.
A quick note about the same-team Welker/Aaron Hernandez duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.

TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Aaron Hernandez is an elite tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. He's about 1.6 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Greg Olsen is a nice backup.

Kicker Summary:

: Flish's Crazee Dazees

eSFL Commissioner rating: A-

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds
QB: Philip Rivers, Alex Smith
RB: Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown
WR: Larry Fitzgerald, Hakeem Nicks, Vincent Jackson, Pierre Garcon, Anquan Boldin
TE: Fred Davis, Jacob Tamme
PK:
Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Cam Newton could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2009 it was Brett Favre; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Donald Brown, Alex Smith, and Vincent Jackson. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We expect Philip Rivers to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #6 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Alex Smith, who we have rated as the #17 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Rivers plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Incidentally, Smith has what we project as a neutral matchup (SEA) during Rivers's bye.

RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs. Our projections have Chris Johnson ranked at #4 and Marshawn Lynch ranked 18th.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Donald Brown at RB3.

WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 3.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Larry Fitzgerald is our second ranked WR, Hakeem Nicks is #14, and we have Vincent Jackson 19th.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Pierre Garcon at WR4.
Anquan Boldin is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

TE Summary:
Fred Davis is just OK as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #10). So the selection of Jacob Tamme, who we see as a solid backup, was wise.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Fred Davis as high as #6, which would make him an above average first tight end. Heath Cummings's take: "In 50% of the games he played last season, Davis had 6 catches or more. Only an injury in week 12 prevented him from being a top 5 TE, and he's only 26. Robert Griffin III will need a safety valve at times this season which should put Davis in position to at least match what he did for the first 12 weeks of 2011."

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Kavs Kavanators

eSFL Commissioner rating: D+

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Andrew Luck
RB: Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, C.J. Spiller
WR: Julio Jones, Steve Johnson, Miles Austin, Jeremy Maclin, Kenny Britt
TE: Jermichael Finley
PK:
Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Cam Newton could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2009 it was Brett Favre; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Julio Jones, Steve Johnson, and C.J. Spiller. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 76 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 2 of 2011:
Miles Austin vs. SF: 143 receiving yards, 3 TD
Jeremy Maclin vs. ATL: 171 receiving yards, 2 TD
Darren McFadden vs. BUF: 143 combined yards, 2 TD
Kenny Britt vs. BAL: 135 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:
We have Matt Schaub rated #15 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. And we're not sure that Jay Cutler (our #20-rated QB) is likely to provide much help.
Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a nice playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
IND | GB | DEN | DAL | JAX | GB | DET | CAR | BUF | HOU | SF | MIN | TEN | NE | GB | MIN
Andrew Luck is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Jamaal Charles as a second running back. Our projections have Darren McFadden ranked at #6 and Charles ranked at #12.
Your bench also looks good. C.J. Spiller should serve as a very solid third running back.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Darren McFadden as high as #4, which would make him an above average first running back. Maurile Tremblay's take: "McFadden will be a stud in any format as long as he can stay healthy. With Michael Bush gone, McFadden will get the overwhelming majority of the touches in Oakland. I only wish he had a clearer handcuff candidate."

WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Julio Jones is our #3 ranked receiver, Steve Johnson is #15, and we have Miles Austin 20th.
Your bench also looks good. We love Jeremy Maclin as a fourth receiver.
Kenny Britt is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

TE Summary:
Jermichael Finley, who we have ranked #8, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Finley, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Jermichael Finley is ranked #6 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jason Wood reasons, "Finley bounced back from an injury marred 2010 and produced as a top 5 player (55 receptions for 767 yards and 8 TDs). The risk with Finley is the breadth of the Packers offensive cast -- unlike some of the other elite tight ends, Finley isn't guaranteed a steady diet of targets. At year end though, he'll be in the mix for another top 5 finish."

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Brady Bunch

eSFL Commissioner rating: A

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III
RB: Matt Forte, DeMarco Murray, Trent Richardson, Ryan Williams
WR: Jordy Nelson, Reggie Wayne, Darrius Heyward-Bey
TE: Antonio Gates
PK:
Overview:
Old school!
We like your overall strength at the traditionally less important positions, but make no mistake about it: this team is about strength at the running back position. And we think it will be among the top teams in the league. Somewhere Terrell Davis is smiling.
Nonetheless, we'd be remiss if we didn't at least mention the relative lack of strength at quarterback and receiver. These are usually survivable weaknesses, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to zealously scouring the waiver wire for this year's emergent players at QB and WR. Getting a breakout player at one or both of those positions would take your already-good team to the next level.
Players we particularly like on this team include Darrius Heyward-Bey, DeMarco Murray, and Ryan Williams. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 85 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Matt Ryan rated #7 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #13-rated QB, Robert Griffin III, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.
Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a decent playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
NO | DEN | SD | CAR | ATL | OAK | NYG | PHI | CAR | NO | ARI | TB | NYG | CAR | NYG | DET

RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly DeMarco Murray as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 2.6 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Matt Forte ranked fifth and Murray ranked seventh.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Trent Richardson at RB3.
Ryan Williams is a solid depth pick.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Matt Forte ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first running back. Heath Cummings defends his high ranking as follows: "With Forte signed the Bears are now calling Michael Bush a short yardage back. That's great news for Forte, especially in PPR formats. He has never had success at the goal line anyway, and his fantasy production has never been based on touchdowns. As worried as I was about Forte in June, I'm moving him back where he belongs, in the top five of PPR runnings backs."

WR Summary:
We like Darrius Heyward-Bey as a third WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Jordy Nelson is our #21 ranked receiver, Reggie Wayne is #30, and we have Heyward-Bey 31st.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Jordy Nelson ranked as high as sixth, which would make him an above average first receiver. Heath Cummings defends his high ranking as follows: "Nelson was the most productive Green Bay receiver in 2011 and reports out of camp say he's the best receiver there in 2012. Sure, I think the touchdown totals will come down but 75-80 catches for 1300+ yards should be the expectation. Don't hesitate to take him early."
Some members of our staff have Reggie Wayne ranked as high as 20th, which would make him a fine second receiver. Steve Holloway defends his high ranking as follows: "Prior to last season, Wayne had finished among the top ten wide receivers in four of the previous five years. Last year, with very poor quarterback play, Wayne still led the team in receptions with 75 and yards with 960. This year he will be catching passes from Andrew Luck and reports are positive early on Luck. Especially without Pierre Garcon around, expect Wayne to again lead the team in receptions and should easily rebound over 1,000 yards receiving. "

TE Summary:
Antonio Gates should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fifth overall at the position. Given your league rules and the presence of Gates, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Wallies Texas Stars

eSFL Commissioner rating: D-

Your team rated by the projections of David Dodds

QB: Matthew Stafford, Carson Palmer
RB: Reggie Bush, Michael Turner, Isaac Redman, James Starks
WR: Brandon Marshall, Dwayne Bowe, Torrey Smith, Justin Blackmon, Mario Manningham
TE: Owen Daniels
PK:
Overview:
This team is built around strong quarterback play. But it has some serious issues post-draft. Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your weaknesses at both running back and receiver put you in a hole before any games have played. To end up with a team constructed like this, you probably did not get value on some of your selections. The players themselves are not necessarily bad --- you just might have paid more than what they were worth.
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Carson Palmer, Isaac Redman, and Torrey Smith. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 39 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We expect Matthew Stafford to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #5 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Carson Palmer, who we have rated as the #14 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Stafford plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Note that Stafford and Palmer have the same bye week. We don't necessarily disapprove of this if you like both of them, but don't forget about it. You have no other options at this point.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Reggie Bush ranked at #17 and Michael Turner ranked 21st.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Tough to do better than Isaac Redman at RB3.
James Starks is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Reggie Bush as high as #13. Maurile Tremblay's take: "Last season, Reggie Bush became the running back many expected him to be when he was the second overall pick in the 2006 draft. He finished the year with four straight 100-yard rushing games before missing week 17 due to injury. When his season ended after week 16, he was the No. 9 fantasy running back. I don't worry as much as most do about Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller cutting into Bush's carries this season."
Some members of our staff have Michael Turner ranked as high as 15th, which would make him an above average second running back. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Even though the Falcons are becoming a more pass-oriented team, they still plan to feed Turner the ball around 70% of the available carries - he should be a solid RB2 even in PPR leagues thanks to his central role on the Falcons' rushing attack. I think he's underrated this year in fantasy circles, especially in non-PPR formats."

WR Summary:
We like Torrey Smith as a third WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Brandon Marshall is our ninth ranked WR, Dwayne Bowe is #26, and we have Smith 27th.
Justin Blackmon is a little below average as a fourth receiver.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Mario Manningham is the right player for the job.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Brandon Marshall ranked as high as third, which would make him an above average first receiver. Ryan Hester defends his high ranking as follows: "Jay Cutler is a large upgrade over Miami's QBs. I like Marshall's chances to have a big year because of the Cutler-to-Marshall reunion from their Denver days and Mike Tice taking over as Offensive Coordinator."
Some of our staffers have Dwayne Bowe as high as #16, which would make him an above average second receiver. Heath Cummings's take: "With Bowe in camp earlier than expected it's easy to be optimistic about his chances in 2012. He now has plenty of time to learn the offense and Jonathan Bladwin is emerging as a legitimate threat to take some heat off of him. Bowe has always had talent and now he has extra motivation to prove his worth."
Some members of our staff have Justin Blackmon ranked as high as 27th, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Jeff Pasquino defends his high ranking as follows: "Justin Blackmon enters his rookie season with some of the deck stacked against him. Jacksonville has issues upon issues in the passing game with weakness all around at wide receiver and quarterback. Blackmon is gifted enough to get 5-6 catches and 60-75 yards most games, which should give him a strong first season."
Mario Manningham is ranked #54 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average fifth receiver. Mark Wimer reasons, "Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham are competing to fill the 49ers' #2 wide receiver slot, in my opinion. Right now, I've got them cheek-by-jowl on my wide receiver board, pending the outcome of their battle in training camp. Personally, I'm more comfortable drafting Manningham because he doesn't have the mercurial, unpredictable temperament/work ethic that we've seen hamper Crabtree during his career."

TE Summary:
With only Owen Daniels, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Owen Daniels as high as #8, which would make him a fine first tight end. Maurile Tremblay's take: "After a couple of top-ten seasons in 2007 and 2008, Owen Daniels was among the league's best tight ends in 2009 before tearing his ACL midway through the season. In eight games that season, he was on pace to equal Antonio Gates' production as a top three fantasy TE. He wasn't the same in 2010, but bounced back somewhat in 2011, and should play a big role in the offense in 2012. He should be a low-end TE1 if he can stay healthy."

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

2012 Vintage Conference Draft Grades

: Global Division

: Vintage Conference Draft Grades-2012

All teams were rated by the projections of David Dodds

Commissioner Grade: B-

QB: Michael Vick, Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Darren Sproles, Ronnie Hillman, James Starks, Daniel Thomas
WR: Calvin Johnson, Vincent Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Greg Little
TE: Brandon Pettigrew, Jacob Tamme
PK:
Overview:
Your receivers are the strongest part of this team. While no team can be expected to be above average at all three core positions (QB/RB/WR), you are in the precarious position of being a bit weak at two of them.
Although you should not be counted out yet, you may need to be active on both the waiver wire and in trades to turn this team into a legitimate contender. The best way to achieve that might be to sacrifice some of your wide receiver strength to gain multiple players than can help your roster now. It's generally easier finding quarterbacks and wide receivers on the waiver wire than quality running backs.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Likewise, running backs like Peyton Hillis, LeGarrette Blount, and Mike Tolbert all could be had dirt cheap at the draft or shortly after. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 75 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 44 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:

We expect Michael Vick to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #6 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
We're not excited about Ryan Fitzpatrick (our #22 QB) as a backup, but he'll probably be adequate.
Incidentally, Fitzpatrick has what we project as a neutral matchup (TEN) during Vick's bye.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - After a tremendous 2010 season, Fitzpatrick took both a step forward and back in 2011. While he increased his passing yards from 2,992 to 3,832, it took him 128 more attempts to do it because the Bills tried to counter poor offensive line play with a short passing attack. He also saw his interception total jump from 15 to 23. However, he was forced to throw a lot of desperation balls in the final quarters of games so it was not poor decision-making that hurt him as much as game situation. Improvements on the offensive line should help Fitzpatrick improve his production this year and avoid the riskier passes he tends to make at times. While he will not be a top-tier starting quarterback in fantasy leagues, Fitzpatrick is an excellent QB2 with low-end starter numbers as his ceiling.
Michael Vick - Michael Vick should be nicknamed "Roller Coaster" given the peaks and valleys of his recent past. After a much publicized incarceration and fall from grace, Vick earned a second chance with the Eagles, but looked to be little more than a gimmick quarterback. A year later he gets a chance to play because Kevin Kolb --- who had been anointed --- gets hurt, and Vick plays so well that Kolb never gets his job back; Vick signs a $100mm extension, and becomes the new face of the franchise. The 2011 offseason brought with it a deluge of free agent signings, talk of Dream Teams, and massive expectations; and for the first time in years, Vick was a consensus Top 5 fantasy quarterback in preseason rankings. Things didn't go exactly as planned, and Vick finished just outside the Top 10 (11th), and regressed markedly as he tried to do too much once the Eagles got off to a slow start. His completion rate (59.8%), touchdown passes (18) and interceptions (14) all represented setbacks from his MVP-caliber 2010, but it was the dramatic falloff in rushing touchdowns (from 9 in 2012 to 1 last year) which made Vick a fantasy disappointment. At this juncture, fantasy owners know what to expect from Vick --- his reckless and aggressive style of play all but guarantees he'll miss at least two or three games a season, but when he's in the lineup he can carry your team, particularly if his rushing touchdowns bounce back. With the league arguably deeper at quarterback than we've seen in a generation, Vick is going to be a high risk, high reward option in the 4th or 5th round of 10- and 12-team leagues. I would argue he's worth the risk, but you have to make sure you take a higher end QB2 so you're not scrambling to replace him on those weeks he'll inevitably be sidelined.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Darren Sproles ranked at #11 and Ronnie Hillman ranked 39th.
James Starks is a little below average as a third running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Daniel Thomas is the right player for the job.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Darren Sproles ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first running back. Jeff Tefertiller defends his high ranking as follows: "Sproles is awesome in the fast-pace Saint offense, especially on the home turf. His success last year was no fluke. Sproles could easily improve off of last year's numbers as Ingram's injury woes continue and the departure of Meachem. "
Ronnie Hillman is ranked #24 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second running back. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Hillman was drafted to be a big part of the Denver offense. McGahee is aging and Hillman adds the ability to make defenders miss and is a good receiver. The big concern for the rookie will be protecting Peyton Manning. He will not play much untill/unless he can pass protect. But, we can all remember how the running backs behind Manning all seemed to rack up the fantasy points. Hillman is very quick and will make an impact this year."
James Starks is ranked #30 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average third running back. Anthony Borbely reasons, "Starks should be the unquestioned starter at RB for the Packers, but I'm not overly excited about his fantasy prospects in this offense, not to mention his long history of injuries. "
Daniel Thomas is ranked #32 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Mark Wimer reasons, "Reggie Bush headlined for the Dolphins last year, and he looks set to do that again this year. However, the passing game is shaky at best (and may feature a rookie quarterback for all or at least some of the year) and Daniel Thomas will likely share the load with Bush. This doesn't look like a situation that will produce optimum fantasy points for team owners, folks, and Thomas is likely the junior partner in the committee. "
Ronnie Hillman - The Broncos selected Ronnie Hillman in the third round this season to replace Knowshon Moreno as McGahee's primary backup. Hillman has 4.45 speed and is a good receiver out of the backfield. He is a change of pace back who can also run between the tackles, drawing comparisons to Darren Sproles for his running style. Hillman's best chance for playing time at the beginning of the season, if he can impress in his pass blocking, is in a third-down back role. Many scouts feel he could be more than just a third-down back in the long run, eventually replacing McGahee as the Broncos' primary ballcarrier. A few observers believe that it could even happen at some point this season. That makes Hillman a very high-upside pick in the 11th round; and his average draft position could start sneaking up a few rounds if he impresses during the preseason.
Darren Sproles - The league's top receiving running back last year was none other than Darren Sproles. The "diminutive one" amassed 86 receptions on 107 targets and combined for over 1,300 yards with nine total touchdowns. He won't be as good a value as he was last year because he will be scooped up in the mid-to-late third round and will be used as a RB2 instead of a flex like last year. His consistent pass catching skills, particularly in PPR leagues, will still make him a strong RB2 with the ability to put up RB1 numbers any given week.
James Starks - The second-year runner split duties with veteran Ryan Grant in 2011 and displayed good power as a downhill runner. However, James Starks didn't show a lot of breakaway skill and was often replaced in passing situations for undrafted free agent Brandon Saine and in the red zone for fullback John Kuhn. The Packers are a pass-first offense with a great array of weapons which, along with the Packers' preference to use a running back rotation, limits Starks' upside as a low-end No. 2 fantasy runner unless injury hits the depth chart.
Daniel Thomas - Thomas appeared to be entering a good situation for a rookie runner in Miami because of the oft-injured Reggie Bush, who has never been used as a feature back in the NFL. A big back with good power and burst, Thomas reminded some fantasy owners of Michael Bush, which kept expectations high throughout the preseason. As it turned out, Reggie Bush stayed healthy and Thomas' strong first impression was limited to Weeks 2 and 3 where he totaled 45 touches, 239 yards and a touchdown. After the Dolphins' bye week, Thomas only reached the 70-yard mark once and his first touchdown of the year turned out to be his last. Bush is likely to remain the lead back heading into 2012, but the Dolphins want to be a high tempo offense and based on the number of plays they project to run, Thomas will have a role in the running back rotation. However, Thomas isn't the only bigger back with good hands now on the team. Fourth-round pick Lamar Miller is a good receiver with the size to carry the load and better speed than Thomas. Although the backfield situation is crowded, expect Thomas to serve as the No.2 runner on the Dolphins depth chart and be a priority mid-to-late pick in fantasy drafts as a handcuff and possible committee back to Bush.

WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 4.1 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Calvin Johnson is our first ranked WR, Vincent Jackson is #20, and we have Dwayne Bowe 30th.
Your bench also looks good. Greg Little should serve as a very solid fourth receiver.
A quick note about the same-team Johnson/Brandon Pettigrew duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.
Dwayne Bowe - Dwayne Bowe is a big, strong receiver who can come down with the ball in traffic and get tough yards after the catch. When he is at his best, he is among the most dominant receivers in the league, but he has been inconsistent throughout his NFL career. Bowe has finished the season as a top fifteen fantasy receiver only once --- albeit a strong No. 2 finish in 2010. Bowe is an especially strong force in the red zone, which gives him a very high ceiling, but his propensity to disappear from games makes him a risky early-round fantasy pick. Bowe has gone over 1,000 yards in three of the last four seasons, and we believe that his most likely 2012 performance will be a repeat of 2011, when he was a competent fantasy WR2. Bowe becomes a good value pick midway through the fifth round in a 12 team draft.
Vincent Jackson - After spending his career to this point in San Diego, Vincent Jackson has opted for a change of scenery. Jackson gives the Buccaneers a legitimate go-to receiving threat that they have not had in quite some time. Jackson's presence will give the offense an edge and provide a deep threat that will give Josh Freeman a big target to use off play action. Jackson will command the attention of a safety over the top that may give Mike Williams and Arrelious Benn, among others, with more single coverage. The opportunity for Jackson to thrive in 2012 is there, but it remains a run-first offense and he may not reach the heights of his San Diego days. Nevertheless, the Buccaneers could be playing from behind often, so he could come close or possibly eclipse his personal career high of 68 receptions and finish with a Top 15 ranking. He is a solid late fourth- or fifth-round pick and is an decent candidate to outperform his draft position at season's end.
Calvin Johnson - The best fantasy receiver in football last year was an unstoppable force. Calvin Johnson's size, speed, and agility make Johnson a physical red zone option, a precise route runner, and a terror in the open field. Paired with a strong-armed, highly accurate quarterback like Matt Stafford and he earns targets that few receivers would get and convert. The Lions are attempting to fortify the receiving corps with additional weapons capable of stretching the field so Johnson could earn some easier opportunities for big plays through a more diverse offense. Look for Johnson to produce as a Top 5 fantasy receiver once again in 2012.
Greg Little - A player entering his second year, Greg Little has to overcome some obstacles in order to show the progress NFL organizations desire in their players. The largest of those obstacles is the problem he had with drops last season. Part physical but mostly mental, this issue needs to be resolved. The other obstacle that may get in his way is his quarterback situation. Whether it's Brandon Weeden or Colt McCoy that earn opening day starter status, the offense will still go through growing pains, and the potential for a QB switch will be ever-present. Little's ceiling is a #3 WR or flex option in the #30 WR range. His floor is someone not even worth stashing as a bye week replacement in a 12 team league. Proceed with low expectations and hope for better results.

TE Summary:
Brandon Pettigrew should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked sixth overall at the position. Jacob Tamme is a nice backup.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Brandon Pettigrew is ranked #5 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first tight end. Mark Wimer reasons, "Pettigrew's Lions threw the football the most last season (666 times), but he isn't quite the focal point that Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham are because this team has Calvin Johnson to star as the Lions' (and the NFL's) top receiving option. "
Brandon Pettigrew - The Lions' starting tight end is a good run blocker and a capable intermediate threat with skill to make big plays in the red zone. Brandon Pettigrew adjusts well to the football and has reliable hands. However, he's not a top-end athlete when it comes to stretching the field and presenting a difficult match up against any safety or linebacker. He's a good, but not great fantasy option capable of mid-range No. 1 tight end stats for fantasy owners. However, he's limited in this offense that runs a lot of spread sets and has capable receivers outside and in the backfield. The greatest limitation is the presence of move-tight end Tony Scheffler, who is frequently used in the slot and takes the edge off Pettigrew's numbers. The Lions starting tight end remains a low-end starter in most fantasy leagues.
Jacob Tamme - Jacob Tamme follows Peyton Manning from Indianapolis to Denver, where he should be the Broncos' primary pass-catching tight end. Although his production tailed off in 2011 with the Kerry Collins-Curtis Painter-Dan Orlovsky trio at quarterback, Tamme came on strong down the stretch in 2010 with Peyton Manning at the helm. In his last ten games with Manning, Tamme averaged 6.7 receptions per game. Tamme should give the Broncos the receiving tight end they've lacked since Tony Scheffler departed, and could be used in Denver the way that Dallas Clark was used in Indianapolis. As long as Manning stays healthy, Tamme should be a solid fantasy TE2, with some TE1 potential.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: D Crownholder

Your team is currently being rated by the projections of David Dodds

Commissioner Grade: D-

QB: Drew Brees, Christian Ponder
RB: Michael Turner, Willis McGahee, LeGarrette Blount
WR: Demaryius Thomas, Santonio Holmes, Anquan Boldin, Jerome Simpson, Doug Baldwin
TE: Antonio Gates
PK:
Overview:
The quarterback position looks good, and we like your overall strength at the tradionally less important positions as well. But it has some serious issues post-draft. Your only real core strength is at quarterback, yet that's often the easiest position to fill during the season. Your weaknesses at both running back and receiver put you in a hole before any games have played. To end up with a team constructed like this, you probably did not get value on some of your selections. The players themselves are not necessarily bad --- you just might have paid more than what they were worth.
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. You are likely going to need to land some of this year's top waiver plays, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Drew Brees and Doug Baldwin. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 14 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 3 of 2010:
Anquan Boldin vs. CLE: 142 receiving yards, 3 TD
Michael Turner vs. NO: 125 combined yards, 1 TD
Drew Brees vs. ATL: 365 passing yards, 3 TD
Antonio Gates vs. SEA: 109 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Drew Brees should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #2 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 3.1 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
As of now, our projections don't indicate that Christian Ponder will be a viable backup quarterback. While the presence of Brees minimizes the need for a top backup, we might recommend taking a quick peek at the free agent list to see if you can find some help.
Incidentally, Ponder has what we project as a neutral matchup (WAS) during Brees's bye.
Drew Brees - Without question, Drew Brees is among the Top 3 Quarterbacks in the league. He is coming off a record-breaking season in which he passed for 5,476 yards with 46 touchdown passes. He has finished in the Top 10 each of the last eight years and has been ranked first or second in three of the last four seasons. Interestingly enough, Brees is commonly the third and sometimes the fourth QB taken in redraft leagues this year. The 2012 Saints will be without Head Coach Sean Payton, who is suspended for the year, due to the Saints bounty sanctions handed down by NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. It is unclear how this will affect the play calling, which may add a bit of uncertainty to the projection stats for Brees. The Saints wide receiver corps lost Robert Meachem to San Diego via free agency, but is not expected to miss a beat or decline. Brees should be one of the first three quarterbacks selected in drafts this year and should go in the first or second round.
Christian Ponder - The Vikings' first-round pick in 2011 took over for a struggling Donovan McNabb and flashed moments of promise due to his mobility, arm strength, and down field accuracy. Christian Ponder will start in 2012, but he needs a lot of help from surrounding talent that are young, injured, suspended, or limited in upside. If everything falls into place, Ponder will have enough talent to take enough step towards becoming a respectable NFL starter and future starting option in fantasy leagues. However, he's not a safe bet to provide anything more than bye-week or committee production in fantasy leagues this year.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Michael Turner ranked 22nd and Willis McGahee ranked at #26.
LeGarrette Blount is a very weak third running back.
A quick note about the same-team McGahee/Demaryius Thomas duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Michael Turner as high as #15. Mark Wimer's take: "Even though the Falcons are becoming a more pass-oriented team, they still plan to feed Turner the ball around 70% of the available carries - he should be a solid RB2 even in PPR leagues thanks to his central role on the Falcons' rushing attack. I think he's underrated this year in fantasy circles, especially in non-PPR formats."
Willis McGahee is ranked #21 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine second running back. Maurile Tremblay reasons, "There is some speculation that Ronnie Hillman could take over as the lead back in Denver by the midway point in the season. Personally, I am not giving enough credence to that speculation to cause me to avoid drafting McGahee --- but I am giving it enough credence to try very hard to handcuff Hillman to McGahee when I do."
LeGarrette Blount is ranked #27 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average third running back. Heath Cummings reasons, "I'm not quite as ready as everyone else to hand LeGarrete Blount's job to Doug Martin. I'm sure Martin will get plenty of opportunities, but so will Blount, especially early on. We've seen plenty of evidence in the past to show how risky rookie running backs can be, so don't totally give up on Blount just yet."
LeGarrette Blount - The drafting of Doug Martin definitely puts a damper on LeGarrette Blount being a strong fantasy contributor this year. His bruising style of running and impressive fleet of foot, for a back his size, will keep him in the league, but likely not as a starter. Martin is expected to win the starting running back job for the Buccaneers this year, which would relegate Blount to more of a complimentary role. He should still see short yardage and goal line carries and be involved in the offense, much like Brandon Jacobs was with the Giants. Blount's draft position will likely drop as Martin's will rise, but he will have value and could see a significant spike if Martin struggles or gets injured.
Willis McGahee - Willis McGahee is coming off of a terrific 2011 outing in which he spearheaded a solid Bronco rushing attack, averaging 4.8 yards per carry. While he was ignored in the passing game once Tim Tebow took over at quarterback, he has been a solid check-down receiver in the past, and should be a reliable outlet for Peyton Manning. The main concerns with McGahee this season are his age (he will turn 31 in October) and the presence of rookie Ronnie Hillman. While most people believe that McGahee has at least one more year as the starter in Denver, a minority of keen observers believe that Hillman will take over that role by the midway point in the season. McGahee finished as the No. 21 fantasy RB last season (despite missing a game), but we view him as more of a high-end fantasy RB3 who should go no higher than the sixth round in 12 team leagues this season.
Michael Turner - The expected value of Michael Turner in 2012 has been all across the spectrum, depending on who you ask. The Falcons coaching staff has indicated that he will see less carries this year, so he can be fresh for the long haul and hopefully the post season. The last two years Turner has eclipsed 300 carries and he has scored double-digit touchdowns in each of the last four years. He will be entering his ninth year in the league and showed signs of slowing down at the end of last season. Turner is one of the better running backs in the league after contact and will continue to be the Falcons primary rusher on a weekly basis. He may not dominate the carries like he has in previous years, but he should still produce RB2 numbers at the very least. Expect to see more from Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling, especially on passing downs. Rodgers probably won't ever be a starter caliber running back, but his style of play (similar to that of Darren Sproles but with a little more bulk) will command more touches. Turner is still capable of 230-250 carries for 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns. He is a low end RB1 with slightly less value in PPR leagues.

WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Demaryius Thomas is our #13 ranked receiver, Santonio Holmes is #34, and we have Anquan Boldin 43rd.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. We see Jerome Simpson as an average fourth receiver.
Doug Baldwin is a solid depth pick.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Demaryius Thomas is ranked #9 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine first receiver. Jeff Haseley reasons, "There are two WRs that I can see making the jump to a Top 5 ranking that may not be expected to reach those heights. One is Brandon Marshall. The other is Demaryius Thomas. If Thomas can be a legit WR threat with Tim Tebow at QB, imagine what he can bring to the table with Peyton Manning."
Some members of our staff have Santonio Holmes ranked as high as 30th. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "I wouldn't consider myself a Holmes fan, but the Jets have to throw to someone, and Holmes remains the team's most talented wide receiver. "
Anquan Boldin is ranked #32 by some of our writers, which would make him a fine third receiver. Jeff Pasquino reasons, "The Ravens now have a legit wide receiver to line up on the other side of Boldin in Torrey Smith. Joe Flacco is coming into his own and Boldin will now play the role of the veteran possession receiver rather than trying to take the top off of defenses. With several passing game options for Baltimore at wide reciever, tight end plus Ray Rice out of the backfield, Boldin will face easier defensive coverages and have more chances to get open and work out of the slot."
Doug Baldwin - Doug Baldwin was an undrafted free agent rookie for the Seahawks in 2011. The former Stanford starter led the team in receiving, demonstrating reliable hands, good downfield speed, and toughness against physical play. Baldwin is ideally a slot receiver because of his size, but he has what it takes to play outside if called upon. Neither Mike Williams nor Sidney Rice is the epitome of durability nor do they have multifaceted skills as receivers so Baldwin could earn the starting job by August. Even if Baldwin doesn't officially earn the starting job, expect him to see the field enough to earn at least flex-option production for fantasy owners.
Anquan Boldin - Entering his 10th season, Anquan Boldin has shown signs of decline since joining the Ravens in 2010. While his numbers were bound to decrease when moving from pass-happy Arizona to run-heavy Baltimore, the decline has been significant and is likely due to aging and the loss of a step as much as offensive gameplans. Boldin's ceiling is probably a mid-to-low #2 WR. His floor is a guy who is a spot-starter or bye week fill-in at best.
Santonio Holmes - Did Holmes and quarterback Mark Sanchez make up after a tumultuous end of the year and a war of words in the offseason? If Tim Tebow outplays Sanchez in camp, will it matter? Holmes isn't happy with the amount of targets he saw last year and he shouldn't be as Sanchez seemed to stop throwing to him near the end of the year. When Holmes gets the ball he is a dangerous playmaker and the Jets need to find a way to get the ball into his hands - it is just that simple. The problem for fantasy owners is figuring out how much that is worth. The Jets are saying they will run the ball more and Sanchez is shaky at the best of times --- and Tebow is still refining his technique. Holmes could be a solid number two wide receiver but in this offense, he's more of a number three. He could be so much more, but this is not the offense that will help him get there.
Jerome Simpson - The former Bengals receiver took a step towards becoming a fantasy starter in 2011 when Jerome Simpson starred opposite rookie sensation A.J. Green and used his athleticism to provide some strong performances as a down the field threat in his own right. Simpson is serving a three-game suspension due to a marijuana-related charge, but when he returns he'll provide enough skill to give Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder a second option that the Vikings lacked on the perimeter in 2011. Consider Simpson a late-round draft pick with No. 3 fantasy receiver upside.
Demaryius Thomas - Demaryius Thomas is entering his third NFL season, and his fantasy prospects get an immediate boost with the switch from Tim Tebow to Peyton Manning at quarterback. Thomas broke out in the second half of 2011: from Week 13 on, including two playoff appearances, Thomas averaged over 100 receiving yards per game in seven contests. Thomas is a big target who can fly down the field in the blink of an eye. He has good ball-tracking ability and can out-jump smaller defenders for the football. What keeps him from sneaking into fantasy WR1 territory right now is his limited track record of NFL production. He wasn't much of a factor as a rookie; then he started slowly in 2011 while trying to come back from an Achilles injury. He looked great toward the end of 2011, but less than a half-season of strong production isn't enough to warrant more than a fifth-round pick. Also, Tim Tebow locked onto Thomas quite a bit while Peyton Manning may spread the ball around more liberally. Still, Thomas' athleticism and strong late-season production last year make him a solid fantasy WR2 (with WR1 potential) heading into 2012.

TE Summary:
Antonio Gates should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fourth overall at the position. He's about 0.7 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Gates, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.
Antonio Gates - With Vincent Jackson no longer on the team, the Chargers will lean heavily on Antonio Gates as long as he stays healthy. He has been limited over the past two seasons by a foot injury, but is reportedly in excellent health heading into 2012. Gates doesn't have elite speed, but he has a knack for beating double teams, and expertly uses his body to shield defenders from the ball. While he will drop some easy ones, he will also make some spectacular grabs. The major concern is his ability to stay healthy: he has had numerous foot and back issues over the past couple years, the sort of injuries that can linger. But assuming he can play 16 games (which he hasn't done since 2009), he should be a Top 5 fantasy tight end.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Zima Ruskies

Commissioner Grade: F

QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Maurice Jones-Drew, Adrian Peterson, Rashad Jennings
WR: Brandon Lloyd, Kenny Britt, Malcom Floyd, Sidney Rice
TE: Jason Witten
PK:
Overview:
Let us say this as nicely as we can. This team is brutal. It is below average and/or too thin at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver).
To make this team into a serious contender, you are going to need to be extremely active in trades and on the waiver wire. You esentially need to turn over significant parts of this roster. Last year running backs like Michael Bush, Darren Sproles, and Fred Jackson all could be had dirt cheap at the draft. Additionally, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Quarterbacks like Cam Newton last season, Michael Vick in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007 could all be had cheap just after draft time. You are likely going to need to land many of this year's top waiver plays to make any significant noise, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc. Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 55 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 30 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Peyton Manning rated #12 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB.
Peyton Manning - For pretty much his whole NFL career, Peyton Manning has been a solid --- and usually an elite --- fantasy quarterback. He was a top 10 fantasy quarterback in each of his first 13 seasons, beginning with his rookie year, and a top 5 quarterback in all but two of those seasons. Until last season, he had also never missed a start in his career. Although he missed the entire 2011 season recovering from multiple neck surgeries, by all accounts he has thrown the ball with good zip and velocity in this year's offseason workouts. He appears to be back at full strength, or at least very close to it, and if he can maintain that strength throughout the season, he could return to elite fantasy status. While Manning has been the quintessential low-risk fantasy pick for much of his career, however, he presents a fair amount of risk this season. The first concern is his neck, which could be a degenerative condition, and could end his season prematurely. The second concern is that Manning will have, for the most part, a whole new slew of targets to throw to, and it may take some time for Manning to get on the same wavelength with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Ultimately, we view Manning as a lower-tier fantasy QB1 in 12-team leagues this season: he has top five potential, but too much risk not to pair with a solid QB2 as insurance.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Maurice Jones-Drew ranked 13th and Adrian Peterson ranked at #20.
Rashad Jennings might be a bit of a reach at third RB, but we understand the desire to handcuff.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Maurice Jones-Drew ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first running back. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "Last offseason Jones-Drew was a huge question mark coming off knee surgery. Many avoided him because of the risk of his injuries, yet those who rolled the dice were rewarded with the NFL's leading rusher. The Jaguars supporting cast is questionable, but Jones-Drew has proven he can produce no matter the situation. I'm not lowering his ADP because of a potential hold out. He's a talented veteran that will be just fine to step into the lineup without training camp."
Some members of our staff have Adrian Peterson ranked as high as ninth, which would make him a great second running back and even a legitimate RB1. Andrew Garda defends his high ranking as follows: "Even 80% of Peterson is better than 99.9% of the backs out there. We don't know what he'll look like coming back from dual ACL & MCL injuries but be sure he is motivated to come back hard. Healthy, he could the number one back on this list. We'll have to see how healthy he is in camp. That said, running uphill against Percy Harvin is a great sign. You can't do that if you don't have a knee in good shape. Yes, the team put him on the PUP list, but that's just caution. It's smart. And it will scare off owners in your league. I will add this - the more owners in your league scared off by AP's injury the better chance you have at a RB1 at RB2 prices."
Maurice Jones-Drew - Maurice Jones-Drew had perhaps his best season as a professional in 2011 as he posted nearly 2,000 yards rushing and receiving. Unfortunately, his massive production did very little for the Jaguars offense as a whole as the passing game stalled often under Blaine Gabbert. Jones-Drew will look to carry over last season's momentum but is likely hoping for a reduced workload (he touched the ball 386 times) as the passing game improves. While he had fewer big plays than in seasons past, he was able to improve his between the tackles running in 2011 and showed improved lower-body power and balance on his way to rushing for 1,606 yards. Jones-Drew is 27 years old and entering his athletic prime. While he isn't likely to average 21 carries per game again in 2012, he should still be one of the few running backs in the league that receives enough carries to be thought of a stud running back. That, combined with his ability to score from anywhere on the field, makes Jones-Drew an excellent option at the top of most drafts.
Rashad Jennings - Rashad Jennings missed 2011 to injury but is expected to spell Maurice Jones-Drew as the Jaguars look to improve one of the league's worst offenses in 2012. Jennings has underrated power and is capable of carrying the load between the tackles if needed. He carried 84 times in 2010 and performed well, posting a per-carry average of 5.5. Jennings is also an able pass catcher out of the backfield and will be counted on to give quarterback Blaine Gabbert a reliable target on short passes when Jones-Drew is out of the game. While his fantasy impact is likely to be minimal, Jennings could post big numbers if Jones-Drew were to miss significant time to injury.
Adrian Peterson - One of the best running backs of his generation and perhaps all-time from the standpoint of skill, Adrian Peterson tore three ligaments in his knee last December. Although sprinting in a straight-line at close to top speed, he still has rehab to do in order to regain his explosive lateral agility, a staple of his game. Peterson isn't a guarantee to start training camp or even participate in preseason games. Although recognized league-wide as a great player, Peterson may take time to return to the form he showed prior to his injury. In typical Adrian Peterson style, he will try to prove that he is the exception to the rule, but expectations of a Top 10 season should be tabled. Fantasy owners who take the chance and draft Peterson may be handsomely rewarded or bitterly disappointed by the end of the season. Nevertheless, he should finish as an RB2 barring any injury setbacks.

WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Brandon Lloyd is our 16th ranked WR, Kenny Britt is #33, and we have Malcom Floyd 37th.
Sidney Rice is a little below average as a fourth receiver.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Brandon Lloyd ranked as high as seventh, which would make him a fine first receiver. Sigmund Bloom defends his high ranking as follows: "Maybe 23 touchdowns is asking too much, but 15 is totally doable for Lloyd in the Randy Moss role. Early reports are that Lloyd and Brady look like they've been playing together for years. Reserve your fourth-round pick for him."
Kenny Britt is ranked #25 by some of our writers. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "The recent news of yet another knee injury is concerning. This makes three surgeries in less than a year. Add in the legal woes, and there is way too much risk involved unless you spend the pick on Kendall Wright."
Some of our staffers have Sidney Rice as high as #29, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR3. Steve Holloway's take: "Extremely talented wide receiver who has only one season in five where he played all 16 games. That year, he had 83 catches for 1,312 yards and 8 TDs. However, in none of his other years has he topped 500 receiving yards. Boom or bust selection at ADP of WR36."
Kenny Britt - Kenny Britt started 2011 as one of the most productive players in all of football. After two weeks he had caught 14 passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns. During those games he looked nearly unstoppable as he caught passes all over the field and easily gained yards after the catch. Unfortunately he suffered a severe knee injury along the sideline of a Week 3 contest against the Denver Broncos. All reports this offseason are that Britt will be ready for training camp despite having a clean-out procedure on his surgically repaired knee in the middle of May and a similar procedure on his other knee in June. Prior to the injury Britt showed substantially improved quickness and speed to go with precise route running and excellent hands. If he is able to return to full speed then he should once again be one of the most productive receivers in football. That said, knee injuries of this type (torn ACL and MCL) often require at least 12 months of recovery time before the player returns to his former self. As a result, Kenny Britt may start this season slower and will need time to regain his confidence on the knee. Britt is a decent value selection in the fifth round of drafts and can produce WR2 numbers if he remains untouched by the injury bug.
Malcom Floyd - Malcom Floyd is a long-strider with good top-end speed, excellent leaping ability, and possibly the best hands on the Chargers. That makes him a terrific deep threat, but he is a bit one-dimensional. While he has improved his intermediate route-running, he has only mediocre quickness out of his breaks, and he lacks great run-after-the-catch ability. His big-play ability gives him decent upside potential now that Vincent Jackson is gone, but Floyd's inability to stay healthy might be the most consistent aspect of his game. In his seven-year career, he has played a full 16-game season only once. He also hasn't shown much of an ability to take over games. In 74 career appearances, he has caught two TDs only once (and has never more than two TDs in a game). Expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 50 catches for 800 yards and 5 TDs if Floyd plays around 12 games this season, which makes him a solid WR3 when he's in the lineup, but don't count on getting 16 games out of him. He should be an eight- or ninth-round pick in 12 team leagues.
Brandon Lloyd - When rumors broke back in January and February that Brandon Lloyd wanted to be reunited with Josh McDaniels in New England, some scoffed at the notion of the Patriots adding another somewhat mercurial wide receiver after the spectacular flameout of Randy Moss and the flat-out faceplant of Chad Ochocinco. However, the Patriots have never been afraid to add a playmaker and Lloyd had far and away his best season under McDaniels in Denver back in 2010. With Tom Brady throwing to him, he is a threat to repeat that success. His floor will be as a number two wide receiver for fantasy owners, but his ceiling is definitely as a number one. While he has disappointed us before, the upside on this pairing is off the charts and with Head Coach Bill Belichick, Lloyd is likely to stay focused and productive.
Sidney Rice - A terrific athlete, Sidney Rice's career has unfortunately taken a wrong turn since his dynamic pairing with Brett Favre in Minnesota, which produced a 1,300 yard season for Rice. However, Rice hasn't worked with a quarterback with anywhere near that kind of ability since and his production reflects it. He has continued to battle injury, including three concussions and shoulder surgeries, in addition to his inability to develop into a well-rounded receiver capable of running more than basic routes. He is capable of solid fantasy production as a number two receiver for fantasy owners if Seattle's quarterback situation settles down quickly in training camp, but that is not a given. The talent is there, but Seattle's run heavy offense will limit his targets. Sidney Rice, due to his injury-plagued recent history and the average quarterback situation in Seattle, can only be trusted as a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.

TE Summary:
Jason Witten, who we have ranked #7, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Witten, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Jason Witten as high as #4, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jason Wood's take: "The Rodney Dangerfield of tight ends, Witten is coming off a "down" year where he "only" caught 79 passes for 942 yards. At just 30 years old, he remains Tony Romo's most reliable target and will assuredly return elite value particularly in PPR leagues."
Jason Witten - Jason Witten doesn't get the respect he deserves, particularly among fantasy football prognosticators. Whether it's Tony Gonzalez a few years ago or Antonio Gates more recently or now Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, Witten is often treated as the consolation prize among top tier tight ends. That's a shame when you consider that Witten has made seven Pro Bowls in nine seasons, and has been a Top 8 fantasy tight end in seven seasons. Since becoming a full-time starter eight years ago, Witten ranks 2nd to Tony Gonzalez in receptions (661), yards (7,562) and is 4th in TDs (behind Gonzalez, Gates and Dallas Clark). As if that weren't enough, Witten has been an iron man, playing in 143 of 144 games and appearing in more than 99% of his team's snaps last year. With great hands, an ability to beat defensive backs to the spot, and a proven ability to gain yards after the catch, Witten is the definition of a safe bet for TE1 production. He may not have the highlight-reel athleticism to jump out of the stadium, but he's a sure bet for 80-90 receptions, 850-1,000 yards and a handful of touchdowns. In PPR leagues, Witten is right behind the trio of Gates, Graham and Gronkowski. In non-PPR leagues, given his lack of TD upside (he's never scored double digit TDs); he's a tier lower but still a true fantasy TE1.
Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Frost Furrious Flurries

Commissioner Grade: C

QB: Tony Romo, Andy Dalton
RB: Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw, Peyton Hillis, Felix Jones
WR: Andre Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Jeremy Maclin, Titus Young
TE: Brent Celek
PK:
Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Cam Newton could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2009 it was Brett Favre; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), we still see it as an above average team.
Players we particularly like on this team include Ahmad Bradshaw, Felix Jones, Titus Young, and Peyton Hillis. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 72 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Tony Romo rated #11 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Andy Dalton (ranked #21 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Romo turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Incidentally, Dalton has what we project as a neutral matchup (MIA) during Romo's bye.
Andy Dalton - Andy Dalton is a quarterback who is more valuable to his real team than the many fantasy teams of which he is a member. That's because the success he had in his rookie season was most measurable in wins --- as opposed to fantasy points. The reigns on Dalton should be loosened a bit this season, but this is still a balanced team that relies on its defense and would prefer to be efficient and win lower-scoring games. While he has an elite weapon in A. J. Green, he doesn't have many others as this team's #2 WR spot will be among the more interesting camp battles to fantasy owners. Dalton's ceiling would have him scratching and clawing to be a top-10 QB while his floor would have him below the top-20 QBs and probably not rosterable for more than a bye week fill-in in a 12-team league.
Tony Romo - Tony Romo is the Rodney Dangerfield of NFL quarterbacks. In spite of posting historically elite numbers throughout his career in Dallas, the lack of postseason success seems to have kept Romo from being considered a top tier passer by most. For the record, Romo's career 96.9 passer rating is 2nd ALL TIME, his 8.0 yards per attempt is 5th all time, and his 64.5% career completion rate ranks 6th all time. While it's fine to say that sometimes numbers can lie, in the world of fantasy football, numbers are all that really matters. Last year, Romo completed 66.3% of his passes, threw for 4,184 yards, 31 touchdowns and only 10 interceptions. It marked his fourth top-10 fantasy season in the last five years (2010 was marred by injury), and the table is set for continued excellence given the continuity of the offense. The coaching staff returns intact, as do the key offensive cogs: tight end Jason Witten, receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin, and running back DeMarco Murray. There are so many reasons to expect Romo to deliver yet another superb statistical season, but there is one major risk worth noting --- the offensive line. The line was a bit of a patchwork in 2011, and has broader questions entering 2012. The Cowboys are swapping Tyron Smith from right to left tackle, while moving Doug Free to the right side. Phil Costa is penciled in at center, but he was among the worst starting centers a year ago and is overmatched at times. The Cowboys hope a pair of free agents, Nate Livings and Mackenzy Bernadeau, can fix the interior but Bernadeau underwent hip surgery and may not be ready for Training Camp. As long as the offensive line doesn't look completely off kilter in camp, Romo represents fantastic value for fantasy owners savvy enough to wait on drafting their QB1.

RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Ahmad Bradshaw as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 1.5 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Chris Johnson ranked at #5 and Bradshaw ranked 12th.
Your bench also looks good. Not only do we like Peyton Hillis as a third running back, we love that you stole him from the Jamaal Charles owner.
Felix Jones is a solid depth pick.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Chris Johnson is ranked #4 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first running back. Sigmund Bloom reasons, "Johnson's baffling low-effort play for long stretches of 2011 makes it hard to like pulling the trigger in the first, but he's still a rare feature back and he showed us glimpses of the glory days Johnson late last year. RB1 scarcity dictates a pick in the second half of the first round."
Ahmad Bradshaw - Last offseason Ahmad Bradshaw had the chance to hit free agency and the Giants opted to keep the young playmaker in town with a new 4-year, $18M contract that included $9 million in guarantees. 2011 was supposed to be yet another step forward in cementing his status as the Giants primary ball carrier, but things didn't go according to plan. Bradshaw only appeared in 12 games and started just nine contests, managing a meager 3.9 yards per rush on 171 carries. He did continue to find the end zone though; his 11 touchdowns were enough to keep him serviceable as a fantasy option. At the heart of Bradshaw's struggles have been a series of injuries, most notably to both of his feet. In February, Bradshaw received an injection of stem cells to stimulate healing in his right foot, and the results are still unclear. He insists the injection has helped his recovery, but we won't know for certain until he's back on the field later this summer. If healthy (which is a big question mark) Bradshaw has the talent and opportunity to eclipse his breakout 2010 season (276 rushes for 1,235 yards and 8 touchdowns to go along with 47 receptions and 314 yards). He no longer has to compete with Brandon Jacobs for carries, and the Giants depth chart is thin outside of rookie David Wilson --- who has long-term potential but needs to improve in key areas before realistically challenging Bradshaw. Fantasy owners should consider Bradshaw as a 2nd or 3rd back, because his upside is a Top 10 season but the injury risk requires that you not count on his services as a cornerstone of your team.
Peyton Hillis - After beginning his career in Denver, Peyton Hillis spent the last the last couple seasons in Cleveland, where he established a reputation as a tough, versatile runner with terrific power and balance. Hillis had a fantastic 2010, finishing as the No. 2 fantasy RB on the season. He followed that up with a disappointing 2011, however, when he publicly squabbled with the Browns over his contract situation and also endured a bout with strep throat. He played in just ten games and finished outside the Top 40 at his position. When healthy, Hillis has the ability to carry a very heavy workload, but his role with the Chiefs will be limited as long as Jamaal Charles is in the lineup. Hillis could get more carries than Charles in certain weeks as the Chiefs ride the hot hand, but the uncertainty regarding his role each week should keep him out of regular starting lineups in leagues that start two running backs. His likely role as the goal-line back, however, make him a solid bye week fill-in or a decent flex option. He becomes solid value in the latter part of the seventh round in 12 team leagues.
Chris Johnson - Chris Johnson celebrated a huge new contract by being positively pedestrian for much of the 2011 season. He lacked the burst of speed that made him so dangerous in 2009 and 2010 and seemed apathetic to his struggles until late in the year. Fortunately, he had four good games in the middle of the season and managed to barely gain over 1,000 yards for the year. Surprisingly, despite looking like an average back for most of the season Johnson did manage to average four yards per carry and set a career high in receptions with 57. The largest difference in Johnson's production in 2010 and 2011 came in the form of big plays. Johnson's longest run of the year was 48 yards and his longest reception was only 34 yards. He is inarguably at his best when he has the ball in space and can use his speed and agility to gain substantial yardage. Johnson will once again be the focal point of the offense and the team is hoping that an even better passing game with Kenny Britt, Kendall Wright, Jared Cook, and Nate Washington will help open even more running lanes for Johnson. The Titans and fantasy owners expect 2011 to be an anomaly and hope that Johnson will return to 2009 form in the coming season.
Felix Jones - Jerry Jones is an unabashed Arkansas Razorbacks supporter, and made no secret that he coveted Felix Jones coming into the 2008 NFL Draft. When the Cowboys drafted the speedy Jones, it was immediately assumed he would split time with incumbent Marion Barber for a year or two before taking over the lead role. Four years later, things haven't gone according to plan. Jones has been given multiple opportunities to take the lead role, but a confluence of injuries and frustrations have derailed his chances. In four seasons, Jones has just 458 carries (season high = 185 in 2010), and eight touchdowns in 16 starts (out of a possible 64 opportunities). He's only had 20+ carries twice in his career, but has rushed for 100+ yards four times, including three times last year. There's no denying it --- Jones simply doesn't have the durability to be a workhorse, but does he have value as a part-time contributor? If the Cowboys are smart, they'll build the offense around DeMarco Murray but won't completely forget Jones' role. Let's remember, Jones boasts an impressive 5.1 yards per rush average, is among the NFL's leaders in yards after the catch as a receiver, and has the speed to go the distance once he sees daylight. If he can be put into a role where he gets 8-10 rushes and 6-8 receiving targets per game, he can add a home run aspect to the Cowboys ground game.

WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.1 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Andre Johnson is our #3 ranked receiver, Jordy Nelson is #18, and we have Jeremy Maclin 22nd.
Your bench also looks good. We love Titus Young as a fourth receiver.
A quick note about the same-team Maclin/Brent Celek duo you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.
Andre Johnson - Andre Johnson began showing his age in 2011 as lingering hamstring injuries limited his effectiveness throughout the year. When Johnson was on the field and healthy, he was the same dynamic and productive player that Texans fans have come to know and love. His 33 receptions represent a low mark for his career but Johnson did average nearly 15 yards per catch. Johnson will be 31 this season so he is likely near the end of his athletic prime. That said, if healthy he can still be expected to be one of the most targeted and productive receivers in football. As long as Johnson's health report stays clear through the summer he should be drafted with confidence as a number one receiver.
Jeremy Maclin - Jeremy Maclin doesn't get the acclaim that DeSean Jackson does, but in many ways he's a better player. Maclin is a more physical presence and far better blocker. He can run an entire route tree, and has shown an ability to make big catches in tight spaces. He showed in 2010 (during Michael Vick's breakthrough season) that he's a dominant red zone presence. So with all those pluses, you would think Maclin would be a sought after fantasy commodity, but that doesn't appear to be the case in early average draft results. The great thing about drafting Maclin is that we have a clear picture of his baseline, which is someone that will catch 4 to 5 receptions per game and average 13-14 yards per catch. Over a 16 game season that amounts to 72 receptions and 970 yards. But there's every reason to believe we haven't seen Maclin's best yet. Last offseason he dealt with a mysterious illness that robbed him of the offseason and cost him 20 pounds of muscle. If you consider those circumstances, it's actually remarkable to think he managed 859 yards and five touchdowns a season ago. The great news is Maclin's health is no longer an issue. He's back above 200 pounds, and has looked dominant in early OTAs. When it comes to a combination of a high baseline and high upside, few receivers will offer as much value as Maclin on draft day.
Jordy Nelson - Thanks in part to a spectacular passing offense with one of the best quarterbacks in football and a three-game absence of primary receiver Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson was the No. 2 receiver in fantasy football last year. However, this somewhat shortchanges the fact that Nelson had a breakout performance due to his physical skills and excellent rapport with Aaron Rodgers. Nelson has good deep speed and great timing on fade routes. When he gets the ball in the open field he runs like the great return specialist he was five years ago in the Big 12. Many don't expect Nelson's production to return to Top 5 levels because his production earned a nice bump from 15 receiving touchdowns. While double-digit scores and 1,000 yards are solid projections for Nelson in 2012, expecting a return to the Top 5 at his position might be too ambitious. Nonetheless, Nelson is a good fantasy starter with No. 1 receiver upside.
Titus Young - Fast and skilled after the catch, Titus Young flashed an abundance of qualities during his rookie season that excited many fantasy owners. The former Boise State star is poised to earn a larger role in the Lions offense in 2012, but off the field issues have reared their ugly head. The major obstacle for Young is his lack of maturity. He was often a problem child at Boise State and character concerns had a negative effect on his draft stock with questions abounding throughout the pre-draft process. He was involved in an altercation culminating in violence with teammate Louis Delmas this spring and was subsequently barred from organized team activities. Young's talent is undeniable and if he is committed to football, he can wreak havoc on opposing defenses. The Lions offense features the elite receiver of the modern game in Calvin Johnson, as well as a prolific passer in Matthew Stafford. Young has a phenomenal opportunity to finish as a Top 20 wide receiver in 2012 if he can become more mature and trustworthy to the coaching staff.

TE Summary:
Brent Celek, who we have ranked #10, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Celek, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.
Brent Celek - In 2010, Brent Celek must have felt like the co-worker who forgot to chip in for lottery tickets the week his group pulls the winning numbers. With Michael Vick taking over at quarterback and delivering an MVP-caliber season, seemingly everyone but Celek enjoyed career years. On the other hand, Celek's receptions (from 76 to 42), yards (from 971 to 511) and touchdowns (from 8 to 4) fell off and his status as a Top 10 fantasy tight end evaporated. Fortunately, it appears Vick and Celek simply needed time to gel, and we saw Celek return to prominence in 2011 (62 receptions for 811 yards and 5 TDs). He's set to remain a fixture of the Eagles offense --- playing a key role in converting first downs and serving as a safety valve in the middle of the field. Celek, at his best, is a low end fantasy TE1 particularly in PPR leagues, but his upside is limited. He's sure handed and a good route runner, and stays on the field because he's a plus blocker --- but he lacks the top end athleticism to significantly exceed what we've already seen from him.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Temp's Texas Boy's

Commissioner Grade: C

QB: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez
RB: LeSean McCoy, Reggie Bush, Jonathan Stewart, Roy Helu
WR: Julio Jones, Percy Harvin, Nate Washington, Randy Moss, Nate Burleson
TE: Aaron Hernandez, Jared Cook
PK:
Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). Your backs and receivers look just fine. And while it's probably not accurate to describe a team with Matthew Stafford as weak at the position, we do think you're dangerously thin. As Tom Brady reminded us of in 2008, even quarterbacks with spotless health records can go down at any time. Thus the lack of depth at QB is what's keeping this team from getting our full endorsement.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Percy Harvin, Aaron Hernandez, Julio Jones, Reggie Bush, Nate Burleson, and Jonathan Stewart. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 91 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We expect Matthew Stafford to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
As of now, we're not buying Mark Sanchez as a viable backup quarterback. Even though Stafford should be starting for you most weeks, we'd recommend an upgrade here if possible.
Incidentally, Sanchez has what we project as a bad matchup (HOU) during Stafford's bye.
Mark Sanchez - Sanchez regressed badly in 2011. There were many factors which contributed to it. First, the team went to more of a passing offense but when they didn't get instant success they quickly abandoned it. This was coupled with yet another in a long line of wide receiver changes as they dropped Braylon Edwards for Plaxico Burress. The offensive line was a disaster as well, putting tons of pressure on the former USC quarterback to perform. All that said, there are times than Sanchez does not appear to see the field or the defense. He throws interceptions which never should have been thrown, seems to completely miss defenders standing in the receivers route and began to look very skittish in the pocket. We enter the 2012 season with more of the same: a new receiver in rookie Stephen Hill, no real offensive line depth, and no changes to the players who struggled (for example, Wayne Hunter returns to right tackle despite allowing a ton of sacks and pressures in 2011). Sanchez also finds himself facing competition in the form of phenomenon and former Denver quarterback Tim Tebow. Sanchez has alternately looked good and looked awful so far in his career and his opportunities are running short. He is not reliable enough to even be a spot starter and we can't even be sure he will keep the job for all of the 2012 season.
Matthew Stafford - The No. 1 overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft finally played an entire season in 2011 and had the production the organization expected from him. Matthew Stafford demonstrated good command of the offense and great rapport with Calvin Johnson to make plays indicative of a strong-armed passer with displays of hyper accuracy on his way to a top-five fantasy season at his position. Stafford and the Lions expect its stable of running backs Jahvid Best, Mikel Leshoure and Kevin Smith to return to health and be ready for quality production in some form of a rotation this year, which should help the play action passing game. Vertical threat Titus Young displayed flashes of playmaking skill as a rookie and is expected to take the next step and rounding out the promising young receiving corps is rookie Ryan Broyles. If the Oklahoma star can return from ACL injury by training camp, he has the skills to make plays anywhere on the field and take some pressure of Calvin Johnson. As long as Johnson stays healthy, Stafford should have a top-five season as a fantasy quarterback in 2012. If not, Stafford has enough weapons to remain a quality fantasy starter, but his upside won't be as great.

RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 2.9 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have LeSean McCoy ranked at #3 and Reggie Bush ranked 17th.
Your bench also looks good. Jonathan Stewart should serve as a very solid third running back.
Roy Helu is a solid depth pick.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Roy Helu as high as #16, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB2. Jeff Tefertiller's take: "The Redskins will run the ball and Helu is my bet to garner the most touches. He was productive in stretches last year and should improve in his first full offseason. Helu is a very good receiver and his presence will help the rookie quarterback. He is one of just a few running backs to catch at least 10 passes in a game - and that was as a rookie. Hightower is still hurt and not a viable option."
Reggie Bush - Lase year Reggie Bush had his best season to date as a runner. Although he did miss the final game of 2011 with an injury, his durability far exceeded expectations of fantasy owners and he had an outstanding final month of the season, when he compiled four straight 100-yard rushing performances, including a 203-yard tally against the Bills. Head Coach Joe Philbin says they will use Bush in multiple places, including wide receiver. Expect the versatile weapon to earn a lot of targets this season because, with the departure of Brandon Marshall, this group of wide receivers lacks a proven threat. Regardless of the quarterback situation, Bush will likely remain a focal point of the offense. If Bush can stay healthy, he should have another strong season as high-end No.2 fantasy starter at the running back position with potential targets as a receiver that could bump him into No.1 starter territory, especially in point per reception leagues.
Roy Helu - Washington drafted Roy Helu in the 4th round of the 2011 NFL draft, and head coach Mike Shanahan voiced his belief that Helu could become an impact starter in his system. Draft pundits were mixed on Helu's long-term future, as the supporters pointed to his ideal size (6'0", 219 lbs.) and decisiveness at the point of attack, while his detractors doubted his vision and his ability to block and handle blitz pickups. If 2011 was any indication, the jury is still out as we saw a bit of both the good and the bad. Helu struggled (as do most rookie running backs) learning the playbook and the blocking schemes, and that was enough to limit his touches for most of the season. An injury to Tim Hightower changed Helu's fate though, and in his first significant playing time in Week 11 he ran 23 times for 108 yards and a TD against a stout Seahawks defense. Helu rattled off three consecutive 100-yard games before suffering ankle and toe injuries which limited him over the final weeks. Entering 2012, it seemed Helu would be given the opportunity to earn the lead role, until the Redskins re-signed Tim Hightower in May. Now it appears the team will use the hot hand and a committee approach, at least for the initial part of the season. If Helu is able to convince the coaches his blocking woes are behind him, he's the one running back on the roster that has the potential to emerge as an every week fantasy starter.
LeSean McCoy - LeSean McCoy faced a daunting task: replacing Brian Westbrook --- one of the Eagles' best players of the Andy Reid era. Selected in the 3rd round three seasons ago, McCoy was eased into the role as a rookie, and flashed enough to think he had a future as the feature back. The one problem that could've derailed McCoy's ascendance was a tendency to dance in the hole and be indecisive in his attempt to make the huge play rather than the right one. To his credit, he astutely studied his own film, bought into the coaches' blocking schemes, and overcame that tendency two seasons ago. In the last two years, McCoy has been a do-everything weapon; averaging 1,650 yards from scrimmage and scoring a stunning 29 touchdowns --- 20 of them coming last year (when he led the NFL). What's most impressive about McCoy is the confidence he's earned from Andy Reid. Reid has never been one to give a running back 18-20 carries per game, but McCoy racked up 273 carries in 15 starts. In an era when few NFL franchises have a workhorse runner, it's ironic that the league's most pass happy coach has found one. Armed with a long-term extension, McCoy is one of the few players that have a realistic chance of being the #1 player in fantasy football. He's in his prime, is as good a receiver as he is a runner, and will again be a must start in any league format.
Jonathan Stewart - The combination of running backs DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart was in full effect last year. Both backs were involved in the offensive game plan, however Stewart exploded onto the scene as the Panthers primary pass-catching back, catching 47 passes, up from eight the year prior. The increase is mostly due to Offensive Coordinator Rob Chudzinski, who likes to involve the running back position as an outlet in the passing game if down the field options are not available. Stewart benefited a lot from the dump off pass in 2011 and the same should ring true this year. His receiving numbers may come down a little with the presence of newly signed fullback Mike Tolbert, who is also very good at catching balls out of the backfield and knows Chudzinski's offense well from his time in San Diego. Stewart matched DeAngelo Williams with a 5.4 yards per carry average in 2011 and should be able to put up similar numbers this year in what could be more of a leading role in his fourth year in the league. What gives Stewart the edge over Williams in a fantasy sense is his involvement as a receiver, but also that he is four years younger than Williams. Stewart also has more size and power that will garner more goal line carries and scoring chances. He is a good RB2 this year, especially in leagues that reward for receptions.

WR Summary:
Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Julio Jones as a top receiver. Jones is our fourth ranked WR, Percy Harvin is #8, and we have Nate Washington 38th.
Randy Moss should be a good fourth receiver.
Nate Burleson is a solid depth pick.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Nate Washington ranked as high as 22nd, which would make him a great third receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Washington does well whether Matt Hasselbeck or Jake Locker is slinging the football, and Kenny Britt has a nagging knee injury and Britt faces a strong potential challenge from Kendall Wright for playing time if Britt can't get up to speed during training camp. Washington had a career year last season, but he seems to be the most secure fixture on the wide receiver's depth chart - I see no reason he can't at least replicate a 70/1,000/7 type season during 2012. The pessimism about Washington on other ranking boards seems unjustified, especially given Britt's latest arrest (DUI)."
Nate Burleson - Nate Burleson is a good route runner with strong hands, skill to adjust to the football, and skill after the catch. However, he also disappears for extended stretches of the season and has not been a reliable fantasy option on an annual basis in his career. He will compete with second-year receiver Titus Young and rookie Ryan Broyles for time in the receiving rotation in 2012. Young is a dynamic playmaker as a vertical threat or with the ball in his hands and Broyles has the skills to become a lead receiver in many NFL offenses if he returns to pre-injury form after tearing an ACL in November. Even if Burleson earns the starting role in 2012, expect him to share a lot of time with the younger receivers on this roster. He's at best a late-round selection for fantasy owners this year.
Percy Harvin - Despite inconsistency at quarterback and a lack of viable receiving talent opposite Percy Harvin, the versatile receiver-runner-return specialist had a career year in 2011. Harvin's migraine issues are still a concern, but he has worked hard with a medical team to manage the issue enough that there should be more confidence in his health entering 2012. Another reason for future optimism is the addition of explosive threat Jerome Simpson and the potential of Arkansas draft picks Jairus Wright and Greg Childs. If one of these three players performs to expectation, Harvin will become an even stronger candidate as a Top 15 fantasy receiver. This year, he's still a safe No. 2 fantasy receiver because the Vikings will continue to move him around the formation to get mismatches in Harvin's favor.
Julio Jones - The Falcons go-to WR is still Roddy White, but Julio Jones is capable of producing impressive numbers any given week. In his rookie season last year, Jones missed three games due to a hamstring injury that may not have fully healed until after the season. Jones played through the pain and produced a strong rookie season that possibly could have rivaled AJ Green's rookie performance, if not for the injury. Jones is expected to take another step forward, which would elevate him to a high WR2 level fantasy player. Roddy White will still be Matt Ryan's go-to WR in the clutch. He had ten games of 10+ targets, while Jones only had three. It may be a stretch to consider Jones a WR1 caliber player, but on any given week, he is capable of putting up Top 10 WR numbers.
Randy Moss - Anyone who has watched football the past 5-10 years knows that Randy Moss has Hall of Fame skill and might be the best deep threat ever at the position. However, Moss plays when he wants to play, and he hasn't wanted to play since he was traded by the Patriots two years ago. After sitting out for a year, he has impressed the 49ers this spring and summer with his knowledge of the game, work ethic, and downfield skill. If he continues to play because he wants to play, he still has the skills to perform as a Top 12 fantasy receiver in 2012. The key is Alex Smith. Consider Moss a late round prospect with starter upside.
Nate Washington - Nate Washington had a fantastic season in 2011. After years of chasing after errant Vince Young and Kerry Collins passes, Washington seemed to form a quick rapport with Matt Hasselbeck and Jake Locker. Washington ran significantly more downfield routes last season leading to career bests in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. While the Titans are counting on Kenny Britt eventually returning as the team's number one receiver, Washington has flourished in his role on the opposite side of the field. Even with Britt back from injury there should still be plenty of opportunities for Washington to build on last season's success. Washington is 29 years old and still in his athletic prime. He is a useful option at receiver in most formats after the top tier of receivers have been drafted.

TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Aaron Hernandez is an elite tight end. We have him ranked third overall at the position. He's about 1.9 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Jared Cook is a nice backup.
Jared Cook - After two years of frustrating Titans fans and fantasy owners alike, Jared Cook finally broke out as a quality tight end in 2011. Cook's unique blend of size and speed make him a matchup nightmare for opposing defenses as seen during an 80-yard touchdown reception that saw him outrun the entire Jacksonville defense in Week 16. Cook also seems to have finally started to take his route-running seriously while also improving his concentration. While Cook still has upside as a receiver his biggest challenge may come in simply garnering enough looks in the offense with Chris Johnson, Kenny Britt, Nate Washington, and Kendall Wright competing for touches.
Aaron Hernandez - The Patriots have their two-TE system down to a fine art and defenses often end up getting their wires crossed when it comes to defending both Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The distribution of targets among the two tight ends makes Aaron Hernandez' value a difficult thing to pin down. These concerns may be unfounded, however, as Hernandez finished last season as the third-ranked tight end. Hernandez is the quicker, shiftier player of the Patriots' tight ends and will produce consistently when he is an important facet of the game plan in a given week. He is a frequent target of Tom Brady's, only seeing fewer that five targets once in the regular season. Hernandez is a smooth route runner with terrific hands and the ability to break away from chasing defenders in the open field. He is a certainty to finish as a top ten tight end in 2012, and will probably finish in the top five.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Pardue Bruisermakers

Commissioner Grade: D+

QB: Philip Rivers, Josh Freeman
RB: Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles, Ryan Mathews, Kevin Smith, Jacquizz Rodgers
WR: Hakeem Nicks, Dez Bryant, Mike Williams, Robert Meachem
TE: Fred Davis
PK:
Overview:
Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Jamaal Charles, Dez Bryant, Kevin Smith, and Josh Freeman. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 80 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 70 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 59 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Philip Rivers rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a less-than-stellar starter in this league. But we like the selection of our #15-rated QB, Josh Freeman, to go with him. Hopefully between the two of them, you should be able to cobble together some good production at the position, but this strategy always carries with it the downside that you'll drive yourself crazy trying to decide who to start from week to week.
Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule , though their playoff schedule isn't so great. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
OAK | NYG | DAL | WAS | NO | DEN | NO | MIN | OAK | SD | CAR | ATL | CIN | PHI | NO | STL
Josh Freeman - In 2010, Josh Freeman arrived as a Top 10 QB in the league, finishing with 7th place ranking. The 2011 season was supposed to be filled with promise, instead Freeman took a step back as he struggled with accuracy, throwing 22 interceptions with only 16 touchdown passes. Interestingly enough, he finished 16th thanks to 3,592 yards passing with 238 yard rushing and 4 rushing touchdowns. Freeman is a hard working, determined player, who should mesh well with new Head Coach Greg Schiano. He will have a true go-to wide receiver in Vincent Jackson, who the Buccaneers signed in the offseason. The Bucs also drafted a very talented running back in Doug Martin, who is also an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Tight End Kellen Winslow is now out of the picture and the more calm and collected Dallas Clark will be taking his place. All of these additions give the Buccaneers an improvement on offense, that will most undoubtedly help Josh Freeman rebound into what could be a Top 12 season, possibly higher.
Philip Rivers - During the five years that Norv Turner has coached the Chargers, Philip Rivers has averaged 4,150 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, and 13 interceptions per season. He had a disappointing year in 2011, throwing 20 interceptions and making mistakes at key points in several games. Nonetheless, Rivers is among the league's elite passers. He has a very quick release, and he is generally accurate when given time in the pocket. He throws a catchable deep ball, and he's a respected leader. He has been durable throughout his career, never missing a regular-season game due to injury. He lacks top-tier arm strength and isn't terribly mobile, but he's a good bet to throw for over 4,000 yards again. After the top five quarterbacks are off the board, the next five or six are similar in value, and Rivers is in the middle of that group. He is a fair value in the sixth round of a 12-team league, and an excellent value in the seventh or beyond.

RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Jamaal Charles as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 2.0 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Darren McFadden ranked sixth and Charles ranked seventh.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Ryan Mathews at RB3.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than three players here. Of your remaining guys, we like Kevin Smith the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Darren McFadden ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first running back. Maurile Tremblay defends his high ranking as follows: "McFadden will be a stud in any format as long as he can stay healthy. With Michael Bush gone, McFadden will get the overwhelming majority of the touches in Oakland. I only wish he had a clearer handcuff candidate."
Jamaal Charles - Jamaal Charles tore his left ACL in Week 2 last year, but he will have had nearly a full year of rehab by the start of the season and is on schedule to be in the Week 1 lineup. Charles shared time with Thomas Jones in 2009 and 2010, but likely would have gotten more of a featured role last season if it weren't for his injury. With the signing of Peyton Hillis, Charles will go back to splitting time in the backfield; but if that helps keep his legs fresh, he is capable of doing a lot of damage even on limited touches. The question is whether the ACL injury will rob him of his explosiveness. In 2010, Charles' running style was reminiscent of Chris Johnson at his best. If he can regain that form in 2012, he should be a fantasy RB1 again. In fact, if it weren't for the signing of Peyton Hillis, Charles might sneak into the first round of 12-team drafts this season. But with the potential time-share arrangement in the backfield, Charles should be drafted as a bottom-tier fantasy RB1 in the middle of round two. Is he healthy, whats his workload? If Pardue can stay in the hunt it's possible Charles could be a factor in the playoff weeks, otherwise, it's a busted pick at the spot he was taken.
Ryan Mathews - Ryan Mathews was the Chargers first-round draft pick in 2010, but he has had trouble staying healthy in each of the past two seasons. When he has been healthy, he has been productive, averaging 4.7 yards per carry so far in his career. He has a terrific combination of speed and power. He has excellent balance and can gain yards after contact. Unfortunately, he has a reputation as a fumbler, and has also dropped some easy passes as a receiver. With Mike Tolbert departed via free agency, Mathews will get the opportunity to play the featured role in the Chargers' backfield as long as he can stay healthy. He has Top 5 potential if he can stay in the lineup, but his inability to play through minor injuries thus far in his career makes him a risky early pick in fantasy drafts. Despite his huge upside potential, he is too unproven to take in the first half of round one, but his talent and opportunity are too great to pass up in the latter part of the first round. Can he stay healthy enough to be an impact and not just a couple three weeks of help.
Darren McFadden - When Darren McFadden is healthy, he is among the most dynamic, explosive running backs in the league. He has top-tier straight-line speed, and has also developed into a tough inside runner who doesn't always go down on first contact. In addition, he is a capable receiver and pass-blocker, which means that he can be used as an every-down back. With Michael Bush now in Chicago, McFadden could get a huge majority of the snaps in Oakland, elevating his status to a true feature back that is becoming a rarity in the NFL. But that's only as long as he stays healthy, which has been a challenge for him thus far in his career. In his first four seasons in the league, he has yet to play a full 16-game schedule. McFadden finished as the No. 6 fantasy RB in 2010 despite playing only 13 games; and through the first six weeks of 2011, before missing the rest of the season with a foot injury, he was the No. 3 fantasy RB. His elite potential combined with his ominous injury history will have fantasy owners split on their opinions of him. He may go in the first half of the first round in some drafts, and may slide out of the first round completely in others. We view him as a solid fantasy RB1 who should appropriately go toward the end of round one in twelve-team leagues. BEAST if he is on the field.
Jacquizz Rodgers - The Falcons are confident that second-year running back Jacquizz Rodgers will take another step forward this year and command more playing time. As a rookie, he was not involved that much in the offensive game plan. The 2012 season brings a new offensive coordinator to Atlanta in Dirk Koetter, who was formerly with the Jaguars in the same role. Koetter took advantage of Maurice Jones-Drew in the Jaguars offense and could look to do the same with Rodgers. Unlike Michael Turner, and very much like Jones-Drew, Rodgers is a very good pass-catching back that can make plays. He may not have the bulk that Jones-Drew has, but he can be a threat on passing downs and will spell Turner from time to time. It may be a stretch to think Rodgers can come onto the scene and put up strong enough numbers to warrant weekly fantasy consideration, but he has the look and feel of what Koetter wants to bring to the Falcons. If he turns heads in training camp and preseason, consider taking a flier on him as a middle round running back, especially in PPR leagues. Expect Rodgers to be a top running back in the eSFL in 2012. Turner will likely have his touches reduced by 50 percent and I see Rodgers playing on passing second and third downs.
Kevin Smith - When Kevin Smith was on the field in 2011, he was fantastic as a runner and receiver. He displayed excellent burst, great lateral agility, and good decision-making as both a runner between the tackles and a receiver in the short area of the field. This is the way Kevin Smith looked as a star at the University of Central Florida and flashed some of these skills as third-round rookie with the Lions in 2008. However, Smith couldn't stay healthy and this is why the Lions cut him in 2010 and he sat out much of the 2011 season until he earned a street free agent tryout and demonstrated the athleticism that made the Lions take him back and use him. If Smith stays healthy this year, he's as capable as Jahvid Best or Mikel Leshoure of producing as a borderline No. 1 fantasy runner in 2012. Monitor the health and depth chart of the Lions runners during training camp before pulling the trigger on Smith any earlier than the late rounds. Noone likes him except Pardue and I. This guy is PPR heaven when he is on the field, and with little to no other options in detroit everyone will be wishing they had stolen this guy.

WR Summary:
We like Dez Bryant as a second WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Hakeem Nicks is our 11th ranked WR, Bryant is #12, and we have Mike Williams 41st.
Robert Meachem should serve as a very solid fourth receiver.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Hakeem Nicks as high as #5, which would make him an above average first receiver. Jeff Pasquino's take: "The Giants are rebuilding their ground game, something that helped put Nicks up towards the top of the WR list last season. Helped also by Eli Manning getting better and better and the emergence of Victor Cruz, Nicks is a strong WR1 in fantasy. Not really concerned about the injury as he should be good to go by the middle of training camp."
Mike Williams is ranked #28 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average third receiver. Mark Wimer reasons, "With Vincent Jackson to draw off the double teams, and given some level of expected improvement on Josh Freeman's part, I expect to see Williams on the cusp of fantasy wide receiver #2 status, with the basement for Williams being a solid fantasy wide receiver #3. He's being undervalued this year due to last year's offensive issues. "
Robert Meachem is ranked #23 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Mark Wimer reasons, "There is plenty of upside for Robert Meachem from where I've got him on my wide receiver board currently. If he looks simpatico with Philip Rivers during preseason, Meachem will vault up my rankings. I like him as a third fantasy wide receiver right now, with possible #1 fantasy wide receiver potential. I've been drafting Meachem often this year. "
Dez Bryant - In today's ever present 24-hour news cycle, it seemed for a while that Dez Bryant was on a crash course for failure. Very public complaints from creditors painted a picture of a young man who hadn't learned to deal with his responsibilities, wealth and notoriety. Whether or not those concerns were justified, Bryant appears to have quieted his critics, and 2011 was an uneventful year for him off the field. On the field, Bryant may not have asserted himself as a Pro Bowl caliber player yet, but his steady improvement still hints at a possible breakout sooner rather than later. In 13 starts (15 games played), Bryant improved his receptions (from 45 to 63), yards (from 561 to 928), yards per reception (12.5 to 14.7) and touchdowns (from 6 to 9). Physically, Bryant has few equals (6'2", 225 lbs. and high end straight line speed), and he has excellent hands (only one drop in 100 targets last year). He still needs to improve the crispness of his routes, but based on the improvement from 2010 to 2011, there's every reason to believe further growth is looming. 15 touchdown receptions in 108 career receptions speak to Bryant's explosiveness, and with Laurent Robinson leaving for Jacksonville, both Bryant and Austin will be targeted more by Tony Romo by design. As long as Bryant keeps his head on straight, he could be one of the most targeted, productive receivers in the league --- and is entering his prime with strong indications that we haven't seen his peak yet. He's a riskier bet than his teammate Miles Austin, but his upside offsets that risk.
Robert Meachem - Robert Meachem spent his first four seasons with the New Orleans Saints, where he never caught more than 45 passes as a role-player in the Saints offense. In San Diego, he is penciled in as the starter opposite Malcom Floyd, and will get many of the same routes that Vincent Jackson used to run. Meachem has deep speed and will come down with the ball in a crowd, but he is not a refined route runner and has never been consistent from week to week. We expect Meachem's production to improve modestly with the Chargers over what it's been the last couple years with the Saints, but we still view him as a low-end fantasy WR3 who should be selected in the seventh or eighth round of a twelve team draft.
Hakeem Nicks - Every year there are players that morph from sleeper status in the early preseason to everyone's favorite breakout candidates; and those players can often get so hyped that they become overvalued. Two seasons ago, Nicks fit that bill as he was near universally touted as the breakout receiver to target. For those owners who believed the hype, they were justly rewarded as Nicks delivered a 79-catch, 1,052 yard, 11 TD season --- finishing as the 8th best fantasy receiver in only his second season. Last year Nicks was considered a can't-miss fantasy #1, and largely delivered. His year end fantasy ranking fell just outside the Top 10 (12th) but from a skill standpoint, Nicks was elite once again. Although his receptions (76) and touchdowns (7) fell year-over-year, his yardage (1,192) and yards per catch (15.7) pointed to further skills growth. At 6'0", 210 pounds, Nicks is a prototypical specimen. He's a precise route runner and, perhaps more importantly, attacks the ball making him difficult if next to impossible for defensive backs to cover in single coverage. If there's an area Nicks can improve, it's what he does in the open field --- his 4.7 yards after the catch average was rather pedestrian. But don't let that cloud the issue --- Nicks is one of the best young receivers in the league, and needs only to stay healthy to deliver many years of top tier fantasy production. The one fly in the ointment is Nicks' cloudy injury history, which was further exacerbated by a broken foot during OTAs. Nicks underwent surgery but returned to active status several weeks earlier than planned.
Mike Williams - In each of his first two years in the league, Mike Williams caught 65 passes on 128 and 125 targets respectively. He finished with 11 touchdowns in his rookie year that resulted in a Top 12 ranking, while his second year, he only managed three touchdowns and finished in the Top 50. Rumors circled around Williams not putting in the effort after finding it relatively easy to have success in his rookie year. Defenses focused on stopping him, which helped to shut down the Buccaneers offense in general. A dramatic rebound could be in the cards in 2012, with the presence of Vincent Jackson occupying the WR1 role, thus relegating Williams to more of a complimentary receiver but with more single coverage than in the past. He still possesses the ability to be a threat in the red zone and a reliable receiver in the clutch, only now he will do so in a way that will give him more freedom within the defense. He has excellent value at his current ADP of 106, WR39 that won't pose too much of a risk and could provide an adequate reward.

TE Summary:
Fred Davis, who we have ranked #11, is below average but probably adequate as a starting tight end. You might get by with only Davis, but some additional help here probably wouldn't hurt.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Fred Davis ranked as high as fifth, which would make him an above average first tight end. Heath Cummings defends his high ranking as follows: "In 50% of the games he played last season, Davis had 6 catches or more. Only an injury in week 12 prevented him from being a top 5 TE, and he's only 26. Robert Griffin III will need a safety valve at times this season which should put Davis in position to at least match what he did for the first 12 weeks of 2011."
Fred Davis - The Redskins franchised Fred Davis this offseason, guaranteeing him Top 5 tight end money for the 2012 season, but the plans are to re-sign him to a long-term extension. Davis is coming off a 59 reception, 796-yard, 3 TD season that was good enough for a 12th ranked finish at the tight end position. But remember Davis missed the final four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy. Prior to his suspension, Davis was the 5th best fantasy tight end --- and that's about where fantasy owners should slot Davis for 2012. With a new quarterback at the helm, Davis' role will be essential as no one else on the roster has the ability to work the middle of the field in traffic. Davis is one of the new breed of athletes at the tight end position; he's not quite in the Jimmy Graham and Vernon Davis camp, but he's still impossible for most linebackers to cover one on one.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Appalachian Division

: Texan Bruisers

QB: Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco
RB: DeMarco Murray, Steven Jackson, Isaac Redman, DeAngelo Williams, Chris Wells
WR: Marques Colston, Torrey Smith, Lance Moore
TE: Owen Daniels
PK:
Overview:
Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Players we particularly like on this team include Steven Jackson and DeAngelo Williams. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 65 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 45 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 21 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Matt Ryan rated #7 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. And we're not crazy about Joe Flacco (ranked #19 among quarterbacks) as a backup. If Ryan turns in the season we expect, this position won't ruin you, but it probably won't be a strength either. And if things go wrong, it could be a long year at QB.
Incidentally, Flacco has what we project as a bad matchup (HOU) during Ryan's bye.
Joe Flacco - Joe Flacco is one of the ultimate "you know what you're going to get, and sometimes you're going to like it" quarterback. In his last three seasons, he's been between 3,610 and 3,622 yards passing and between 20 and 25 touchdowns. While those stats aren't elite in today's NFL, you know that Flacco will feast against lesser teams --- particularly in home games --- and not be fantasy starter-worthy in games against the league's better defenses. Flacco's best attribute is his ability to get the ball deep downfield, which can be a big asset for fantasy owners. In a 12-team league, Flacco is a high-quality backup QB. His ceiling isn't any higher than the top-8, but his floor likely isn't lower than top-16 at his position.
Matt Ryan - Looking ahead to the 2012 season, the Falcons offense, especially their receiving unit, looks very strong. Quarterback Matt Ryan is entering his fifth year in the league and he has increased his touchdown passes and fantasy points each year he has been in the league. Last year, Ryan finished with a career high 4,177 yards passing with 29 touchdown passes and only 12 interceptions. The combination of Roddy White, Julio Jones and another season from Tony Gonzalez makes Ryan a popular pick as a late quarterback to target that can still provide adequate, consistent numbers on a weekly basis.

RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Steven Jackson as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 1.2 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have DeMarco Murray ranked seventh and Jackson ranked at #8.
Your bench also looks good. Isaac Redman should serve as a very solid third running back.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than three players here. Of your remaining guys, we like DeAngelo Williams the best, but you should keep the one you think has the best chance of putting up starter numbers. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson has earned a reputation much like former running back Fred Taylor: immensely talented, but often injured on a sub par team. However, like Taylor during the final years of his Jaguars career, Jackson has only missed two games in the past three years, which is excellent for a back that carries the football as frequently as he does. With the St. Louis receiving corps still in flux, expect new coach Jeff Fisher to lean on Jackson to make the aging runner a viable No. 1 fantasy RB in 2012. The addition of heralded rookie runner Isaiah Pead will help the Rams, providing a nice change-up back capable of starting if called upon. Regardless, Steven Jackson will remain the primary ball carrier in St. Louis. He is an early third-round pick in redraft formats and a safe, reliable RB2.
DeMarco Murray - Murray was supposed to back up an emergent Felix Jones last year, and hopefully work his way into a committee role as the season wore on. The former Oklahoma Sooner was the definition of workhorse in college, but some scouts wondered if his pedestrian yards per rush and running style limited his ability to be a full-time back at the pro level. Needless to say, those criticisms were unfounded. A Felix Jones injury gave Murray his first start in Week 7 versus the Rams, and Murray ran for an eye-popping 252 yards on 25 carries. It was the 9th best rushing game in NFL history, and from that point forward Cowboys fans knew their days of wondering if Felix Jones would ever become an every down tailback were moot because they had Murray. From Weeks 7 through 12, Murray led the NFL with 760 yards rushing including five games of 20+ carries and three 100-yard performances. His between the tackles style and ability to gain tough yards after contact were complimented by his polished receiving abilities. Just as Murray was staking his claim for offensive rookie of the year, he suffered a broken ankle against the Giants, ending his season. The good news is that a broken bone is not a chronic injury, and worries that he won't be 100% this year are unfounded. Expected to be fully healthy, Murray will enter training camp as the starter and be in a much different position than a season ago when he had to fight for #2 reps in camp. As long as the Cowboys offensive line can perform as it did last year, Murray has the skill set to be an every down back with the opportunity to deliver Top 10 fantasy value, and a floor that should be somewhere in the RB20 range.
Isaac Redman - Undrafted out of Bowie State, Isaac Redman's rise has been one to watch. After being a player that virtually no one wanted, Redman began his Steelers career as a bottom-of-the-depth-chart guy who was part fullback, part tailback. Last season, he was the primary backup to Rashard Mendenhall and produced decent numbers in limited action (his yards per carry average for his short career is over 4.4). This season, his role will be expanded even further as he'll begin the year as the team's primary back due to Mendenhall's Week 17 ACL tear. Redman's fantasy outlook should be judged carefully as there is no guarantee that his value remains high upon Mendenhall's return. Gambling fantasy owners, however, may speculate that Mendenhall either doesn't return or that Redman performs so well that the team is forced to continue to keep him as the lead back. His non-Mendenhall ceiling is a high-end #2 RB in a 12-team format. His floor under the same circumstances is a player that's just flex-worthy on certain weeks. Draft with caution. You may get a Top 20 RB for eight weeks who needs to be replaced in your lineup thereafter.
Chris Wells - Chris Wells had an impressive year as a fantasy RB2 considering that the Cardinals quarterback situation was inconsistent and Wells played through a knee injury that he admitted he knew needed surgery early in the year. Wells is a swift, powerful runner with good vision. When at top form, he is a solid lead back capable of wearing down a defense or breaking a big play into the secondary with the speed to take it to the end zone. The concern for Wells entering 2012 is his knee. He had an offseason procedure that he has not been willing to specifically describe. When asked if the surgery was a microfracture procedure Wells only smiled and replied it wasn't in his best interest to comment fully. Keep a close eye on Wells this summer because these knee procedures are still dicey. If we don't hear about swelling with the knee and he can participate fully in training camp then he likely has the edge over second-year runner Ryan Williams who is rehabbing from a torn patella tendon.
DeAngelo Williams - The Panthers as a team led the NFL with a 5.4 yards per carry average for all rushing attempts last year. Interestingly enough, both DeAngelo Williams and teammate Jonathan Stewart each averaged exactly 5.4 yards per carry on their own with Cam Newton averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The Panthers combined for 26 rushing touchdowns in 2011, by far the most in the league. DeAngelo Williams, who once totaled 18 rushing touchdowns in 2008, has been involved in a full blown running back by committee approach since 2009, the same year Jonathan Stewart was drafted. Williams has long been the Panthers primary RB with Stewart playing more of a complimentary role, however many believe Stewart will take over as the lead back in 2012 thus giving Williams fewer carries and therefore less production. Williams is definitely capable of being a productive running back - he only needs four more carries to join Jim Brown as the only running backs in history with 1,000+ rushing attempts and averaging over 5.0 yards per carry. The presence of Jonathan Stewart and newly signed FB Mike Tolbert will keep Williams from producing numbers to his full potential, which limits his fantasy value. Williams would receive an automatic upgrade if an injury forced Stewart to miss significant time. Consider him a strong RB4 or RB3 in the current Carolina rushing situation with an opportunity for an immediate upgrade if he becomes the primary ball carrier.

WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Marques Colston is our #19 ranked receiver, Torrey Smith is #24, and we have Lance Moore 44th.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.
A quick note about the same-team Colston/Lance Moore and Moore/Marques Colston duos you've got here. Though the effect is probably negligible, this kind of pairing is likely to make your team more (not less) consistent than a comparable-scoring different-team pair.
Marques Colston - The Saints have a lot of offensive weapons, which limits the production that Marques Colston could provide on a weekly basis. Having said that, he still is able to consistently reach Top 15 status thanks to being on such a potent offense. He is a low end WR1 or high end WR2 who may see a spike in targets now that wide receiver Robert Meachem signed with San Diego in the offseason. As consistent as Colston is on a yearly basis, he occasionally will have a down game with several strong games sprinkled in. There were eight games last year when he had 10 fantasy points or less. The lack of quality games makes him a slight risk as a WR1 selection. As long as the Saints have multiple scoring threats on offense, Colston will be a good, not great option as fantasy receiver.
Lance Moore - Three Saints players had 100+ targets last year, Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston and Darren Sproles. Lance Moore was fourth on that list with 72 targets of which he converted a very efficient 52 of those into receptions. What makes Moore a viable fantasy option is his ability to score in the red zone. Seven of his eight touchdowns last season came inside the red zone, where he and quarterback Drew Brees have found a connection. Moore's scoring touch makes him a viable WR4 or flex option this season. More receptions and greater consistency week to week would definitely make him a stronger weekly option.
Torrey Smith - The best quality of Torrey Smith's game aligns well with the best quality of his quarterback - Joe Flacco can push the ball deep downfield and drop it in a bucket with regularity. Smith has blazing speed and the ability to get behind almost any defender in the league. Anquan Boldin's numbers have been in decline for three seasons while Flacco's have remained consistent. Expect Smith's to increase for multiple reasons --- because he's a second-year receiver growing into his role and to fill the void left by Boldin's decrease. Smith's ceiling is a low-end #1 WR (think Mike Wallace Lite with about an 18 yards per catch average). His floor is an inconsistent #3-caliber WR.

TE Summary:
With only Owen Daniels, who we don't think is starter-quality in this league, this position is likely to be a trouble spot for you all season.
Owen Daniels - After a year of mediocre performance as he recovered from a torn ACL, Owen Daniels bounced back in 2011 to post 54 receptions and 677 receiving yards. While these numbers are a per-game decline from his best years in 2007, 2008, and 2009, they certainly show a trend in the right direction as the 29 year old tight end looks to return to pre-injury form. With Kevin Walter as the Texans' number two receiver Daniels will be counted on to catch a lot of balls in the middle of the field if the Texans are to keep up their potent offensive ways. Daniels is lethal between the hash marks and it would not be a surprise at all to see him further utilized in 2012. Once the top few tight ends have been drafted, Daniels' upside makes him an attractive option at the tight end position in most formats.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Whitmore Workhorse

QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Schaub
RB: Ray Rice, Steven Jackson, Pierre Thomas
WR: Victor Cruz, Steve Johnson, Eric Decker, Denarius Moore
TE: Jermichael Finley, Jermaine Gresham
PK: Sebastian Janikowski
Overview:
In a competitive league, almost every team has a weakness. It's almost impossible to build a team that is strong at all three core positions (quarterback, running back and wide receiver). As you probably suspect, we perceive your weakness to be at the quarterback position. Of all the deficiencies to have though, this is usually the easiest one to mask.
Footballguys owner David Dodds even recommends you go into your draft with the goal of landing the top RBs and WRs while waiting to grab QBs late. Value-Based Drafting principles also suggest that teams constructed in this manner end up being strong. But for this team to reach it's full potential, you might need to have a quick trigger finger at the QB position and stay on the look out for good quarterback help. Last year Cam Newton could be had very cheap in August and September, but ended up contributing to a lot of fantasy championships. In 2010 it was Michael Vick and Josh Freeman; in 2009 it was Brett Favre; in 2008, the same could be said of players like Aaron Rodgers, Kurt Warner, and Matt Cassel. Quarterbacks like these can be found every year, and that could be the key to your team's success.
So although this team isn't perfect (few are), it should still be a strong contender.
Players we particularly like on this team include Steve Johnson, Steven Jackson, and Denarius Moore. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Ben Roethlisberger rated #13 among quarterbacks, so we're not even sold on him as a fantasy starter in your league. But #16-rated QB Matt Schaub provides you with another viable option. So while the position doesn't figure to be a strength, with shrewd management and a little luck you might end up with decent production at QB
Incidentally, these two have a terrific combined schedule and a nice playoff schedule too. If you simply played the one with the better matchup each week, this is the schedule you'd face:
DEN | JAX | OAK | TEN | PHI | GB | CIN | WAS | NYG | KC | JAX | DET | TEN | NE | IND | MIN
Ben Roethlisberger - Entering his ninth NFL season --- a stat that seems hard to believe --- Ben Roethlisberger could be a prime sleeper candidate at the quarterback position. While he may not be drafted like it, Roethlisberger could end the year as a top-10 fantasy QB. He has a couple of things working in his favor fantasy-wise. First, Roethlisberger will be leading an offense without injured RB Rashard Mendenhall for a good portion of the season. Secondly, new offensive coordinator Todd Haley has always molded his offenses to his personnel strengths. For Pittsburgh --- especially this season without Mendenhall --- said strengths are Roethlisberger, Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown, Emmanuel Sanders, and even Heath Miller. Lastly, Roethlisberger's offensive line got a shot in the arm during this year's draft. As good as he is at evading the rush and making big plays, imagine a scenario in which he can scan the field, play from the pocket, and cut down on potential injuries. Roethlisberger's ceiling is that of a top-6 QB. His floor is still respectable but would leave him as a fantasy backup in the #18 QB range.
Matt Schaub - Matt Schaub played only 10 games in 2011 as he suffered a rash of injuries that once again called in to question how durable he is. While Schaub's ability appears to be the same as it has been in recent years, his injuries and the emergence of the Houston running game mean he may not ever throw for 4,000 yards again. Schaub will be 31 this season and despite improving his interception percentage and reducing the number of sacks he takes, the Texans' more run-heavy offense may limit his offensive production going forward. Arian Foster and Ben Tate's emergence as the best rushing tandem in football means that Schaub will be called on to throw it less often on first and second down. Add in that top receiver Andre Johnson is beginning to show his age and it is fair to wonder if Schaub is as good of a fantasy option now as he once was. Schaub has become a more deliberate and effective quarterback in the last two seasons. He makes fewer risky downfield throws, more often settling for the safe option to the sideline than the dangerous throw downfield as he did earlier in his career. If Schaub can remain healthy than he should be a slightly better than average quarterback for 2012. However, his upside is likely minimal due to injury risk and a more balanced offense. The days of projecting Schaub to break out as a 30 touchdown, 4,000 yard passer appear to be at an end.

RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 7.1 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Ray Rice ranked at #2 and Steven Jackson ranked at #8.
Pierre Thomas is a little below average as a third running back.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Pierre Thomas as high as #27, which would make him an above average third running back. Jason Wood's take: "I was all in on Mark Ingram last year, and cost myself and many friends and subscribers dearly. With Ingram having yet another knee procedure, I can't count on him for much until I see him deliver. While Darren Sproles will be the PPR play in New Orleans, Thomas is going to see plenty of touches, and TD opportunities."
Steven Jackson - Steven Jackson has earned a reputation much like former running back Fred Taylor: immensely talented, but often injured on a sub par team. However, like Taylor during the final years of his Jaguars career, Jackson has only missed two games in the past three years, which is excellent for a back that carries the football as frequently as he does. With the St. Louis receiving corps still in flux, expect new coach Jeff Fisher to lean on Jackson to make the aging runner a viable No. 1 fantasy RB in 2012. The addition of heralded rookie runner Isaiah Pead will help the Rams, providing a nice change-up back capable of starting if called upon. Regardless, Steven Jackson will remain the primary ball carrier in St. Louis. He is an early third-round pick in redraft formats and a safe, reliable RB2.
Ray Rice - Ray Rice has a case to be the first overall selection in redraft leagues this year. Rice is a phenomenal talent who is the heartbeat of the Ravens offense. He is a remarkably consistent player who tends to produce each week regardless of the match-up. To that end, Rice has averaged 356 touches, 1,962 yards from scrimmage and eight or more total touchdowns in the past three seasons; that should continue in 2012. Rice can easily finish the season as the premiere running back in fantasy football and should be selected among the top three picks in all redraft leagues.
Pierre Thomas - Pierre Thomas may have had 12 fewer carries (110) than Mark Ingram (122) in six more games last year, but he averaged 5.1 yards per carry, compared to 3.9 by Ingram. There is a chance that Thomas may see an increase in production if knee injuries continue to hamper Ingram. What makes Thomas an appealing fantasy running back is his involvement in the Saints prolific offense as a receiver. Last year, Thomas totaled 50 receptions despite splitting time with Mark Ingram and Darren Sproles. He is an excellent RB3 or RB4 who can provide Top 30 production as a part time player with the opportunity for a higher ranking if he is asked to contribute more.

WR Summary:
Your starting receivers should, as a unit, be adequate but not great. In particular we like Steve Johnson as a second WR. Victor Cruz is our ninth ranked WR, Johnson is #13, and we have Eric Decker 27th.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Tough to do better than Denarius Moore at WR4.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Victor Cruz ranked as high as sixth, which would make him an above average first receiver. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "I think 2011 (82/1536/9) was just the beginning for Cruz - with Mario Manningham out of the picture in New York he could easily see 100 receptions, which should translate into 1,400+ yards even if his lofty 18.7 average yards per catch comes back down to a more usual average over the coming season. I've got him down for 85-90 receptions for 1,400-1,500 yards and nine-to-ten TDs heading into OTA's/mini-camp season. The foot injury to Hakeem Nicks and conflicting reports about when he'll be ready are other reasons to be bullish on Cruz's 2012 upside."
Victor Cruz - Now THAT is the definition of a breakout season. Two years ago, Victor Cruz was an undrafted free agent trying to latch onto a roster. The Giants, by their own admission, almost released Cruz (in spite of a strong rookie preseason) in favor of veteran receiver Derek Hagan --- but they ended up keeping Cruz for his youth and upside. Good decision. Last year Cruz worked his way into the #3 role, behind starters Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham, which in and of itself was an accomplishment considering where he was a season before. But that was just the tip of the iceberg, as Cruz had a monster Week 3 against the Eagles, tallying 3 receptions for 110 yards and two touchdowns. He essentially became a full-time player from that point forward, and was an absolute monster: 82 receptions for 1,536 yards and nine touchdowns. Cruz set a Giants franchise record for receiving yards and finished as the 4th best fantasy receiver. While not as physically imposing as Hakeem Nicks, Cruz has good size (6'0", 204 pounds) and caught everything thrown his way --- his 68% catch rate was among the NFL's best. Cruz generated an impressive average of 6.4 yards after the catch, catching most of his passes working short and intermediate routes. Entering 2012, the keys to Cruz' continued success will come down to a) can he handle the increased pressure from defensive coordinators, and b) can he improve on his drops (11 drops in 2011)? Either way, even if you assume some regression, Cruz is well positioned to be a fantasy starter in all formats, particularly in PPR leagues.
Eric Decker - Peyton Manning has been impressed with Eric Decker in offseason workouts, and has indicated that the team will move him around to try to get him the ball in different ways. Decker, an excellent route runner with soft hands, is exactly the type of receiver Manning has been able to make productive throughout his career. Decker has terrific size and good enough quickness to get separation out of his cuts, but he has trouble maintaining separation for long because he lacks top-end speed. Manning's timing and accuracy should suit Decker well, however, as Manning is effective at getting the ball to receivers who are open in a short window. Decker's lack of production down the stretch last season, however, is concerning. From Week 13 on, Decker averaged only about two catches for 21 yards per game and failed to score a touchdown. He injured his knee in the playoffs against the Steelers but is at full strength heading into training camp. Consider Decker a solid fantasy WR3 who should go in the sixth or seventh round of most 12 team fantasy drafts.
Steve Johnson - Johnson is a tremendously talented but sometimes streaky wide receiver with displays of immaturity on and off the field. He needs to keep his emotions in check because when he loses control he has made rash decisions that resulted in unnecessary and costly penalties. Johnson's production decreased in 2011, but there were games where he and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick displayed greater rapport than the year before, which is a promising indicator that the receiver may still develop into a more consistent player. He has just enough deep speed to get open for big plays, but there is speculation that he might be better-suited as a possession receiver. He makes plays in the middle of the field and as his production against Jets' All-Pro cornerback Darrelle Revis indicates, he handles physical coverage well. He also lacks the blinding speed that generates uncontested targets downfield. The addition of rookie T.J. Graham, a former track star and more natural deep threat, is a possible sign that the Bills organization feels the same way about Johnson's future. The Bills' leading receiver will remain the team's top threat, but he's a safer bet as a No.2 fantasy receiver with No.1 upside if the Buffalo offense can sustain consistent production for an entire season.
Denarius Moore - As a rookie fifth-round pick, Denarius Moore turned heads in training camp last year, and made his way into the starting lineup early in the season. His big play ability was evident from the time he got his first playing time in Week 2. Moore is a bit undersized and doesn't have a great initial burst, but he builds up to excellent top-end speed, and he has tremendous leaping ability and hands. He is at his best on jump balls down the field. He is a great fit in the Raiders' vertical passing game, and worked well with quarterback Carson Palmer toward the end of last season. Moore was extremely inconsistent as a rookie, but the flashes he showed make him an enticing high-upside pick in the ninth or tenth round of a 12 team draft. Lining up next to other big play receivers like Darrius Heyward-Bey and Jacoby Ford means that Moore may not be the focus of the passing offense. Moore is a classic boom-or-bust pick this year. Draft him as a low-end WR3, but realize that he could end up performing far above or far below his draft position.

TE Summary:
Though neither of them is elite, you have two viable starting tight ends in Jermichael Finley and Jermaine Gresham. If one of them breaks out, or if you play the matchups well, you'll probably get good production from the position.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Jermichael Finley ranked as high as sixth, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "Finley bounced back from an injury marred 2010 and produced as a top 5 player (55 receptions for 767 yards and 8 TDs). The risk with Finley is the breadth of the Packers offensive cast -- unlike some of the other elite tight ends, Finley isn't guaranteed a steady diet of targets. At year end though, he'll be in the mix for another top 5 finish."
Jermichael Finley - One of the league's more physically talented tight ends, Jermichael Finley was a Top 5 fantasy option at the position, but an inconsistent producer in a passing offense jam-packed with talent. This could remain the case in 2012, because Aaron Rodgers' skills are so good that he consistently hits the open man rather than tries to force passes into a pre-determined read. Finley is a sound option as a fantasy starter, but he's not a player to target at the top of the draft.
Jermaine Gresham - A former 1st-round pick out of Oklahoma --- even after an ACL injury ended his final Sooner season prematurely --- Gresham has obvious talent. In his first two seasons, though, his role in the offense wasn't as large as that talent would dictate. Studies of last year's team showed that 40 of Gresham's 61 receptions last season (including the team's playoff game) came on routes where he ran 10 yards or less. This is definitely a function of playcalling and scheme, as opposed to a lack of talent on Gresham's part. With Cincinnati having a successful year last season, don't expect much change. Gresham's ceiling is a high-end #2 TE, while his floor is a player who is so inconsistent for fantasy purposes that he's a bye week fill-in or not rosterable in a 12-team league.

Kicker Summary:
Sebastian Janikowski, our 13th ranked kicker, is below average but probably adequate.
Sebastian Janikowski - Always considered a contender to break the field goal distance record, last year Janikowski tied it with a 63 yarder. Then again he's no stranger to long distance attempts. In the past five years he's averaged 8.6 attempts per year from 50+ yards, making 5.2 of them per year. During that same stretch he's only missed two kicks from under 40 yards. Janikowski is joined by two other Pro Bowl specialists: punter/holder Shane Lechler and long snapper Jon Condo. After being mired near the bottom of the rankings for four straight years, the Raiders shot up to 1st in kicker scoring opportunities in 2010. Last year they slipped to 12th. In 2012 they'll be relying on opportunities created by an offense under new reigns - Dennis Allen at head coach and Greg Knapp at offensive coordinator (a position he held with the team a few years back, during which the team ranked 20th and 25th in kicking points attempted).

: Fields Fanatix

QB: Eli Manning
RB: Matt Forte, Trent Richardson, Michael Bush, David Wilson
WR: Wes Welker, Miles Austin, Vincent Brown
TE: Tony Gonzalez, Coby Fleener
PK:
Overview:
Let's start by remarking that we appreciate your old-school leanings: you have a team marked by strength at the running back position. Because the position is so sought after, a team constructed like this usually has a chance to make the playoffs. But with the quarterback and wide receiver both being less strong, you may need to do something to change the outlook of this team. Your deficiencies are likely to show themselves through the bye weeks, so try to manuever early in improving the quarterback and/or receiver positions before week four.
Keep an eye out for quarterbacks like Cam Newton last year, Michael Vick and Josh Freeman in 2010, Brett Favre in 2009, Matt Cassel and Kurt Warner in 2008, and Derek Anderson in 2007. All were available cheap in August, and all contributed to fantasy championship teams. Similarly, wide receivers like Victor Cruz and Laurent Robinson were available after a lot of the drafts. Landing some of this year's top waiver players would be a huge help, so pay close attention to increased workloads, targets, injuries, etc.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 15 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
We have Eli Manning rated #10 among quarterbacks, which makes him a viable starter if not an exciting one. We strongly recommend that you add a backup QB.
Eli Manning - Eli Manning is now a two-time Super Bowl winner, and more impressively is a two-time Super Bowl MVP. To say that puts him in rarified air would be an understatement --- only Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana and Tom Brady have done the same. In a way, Manning's 2007 Super Bowl heroics were the start of his evolution into an elite passer from more of a game manager prone to peaks and valleys. Since then, Manning has steadily elevated his game, and his fantasy output has followed suit. In 2006-2008, Manning averaged 296 completions (58% rate), 3,273 yards and 23 TDs per season. In 2009-2011, Manning averaged 338 completions (62% rate), 4,319 yards and 29 TDs per season. Over the last three seasons, Manning has evolved from a decent fantasy backup quarterback to one of the better starting options. Given the cadre of receivers at his disposal, the continuity of the offensive system, and his own maturation, Manning makes an excellent option for fantasy owners who are unable or unwilling to draft one of the top tier signal callers in the first two rounds.

RB Summary:
Your starting running back group is a strength, particularly Trent Richardson as a second running back. We figure them at a combined 2.0 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Matt Forte ranked at #4 and Richardson ranked 11th.
Michael Bush is a handcuff, but we'd like him as a third running back even if you didn't have Matt Forte.
We're not sure that David Wilson adds much, as you're already strong at the position and we aren't convinced he's roster-worthy in this league anyway.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Michael Bush is ranked #26 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average third running back. Maurile Tremblay reasons, "Matt Forte will be the lead back as long as he stays healthy, but Michael Bush is an effective runner who will have a role in the offense. He may get some goal-line carries. And if Forte misses time, Bush should be a fantasy starter."
David Wilson is ranked #25 by some of our writers, which would make him a great fourth running back and even a legitimate RB3. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Wilson will add excitement to the Giant offense. New York has supported two two good fantasy backs in the past and could do so again this year. I expect the rookie to overtake Bradshaw at some point this year. His speed will add a new diminsion to the Giant offense. Also, let's remember that Bradshaw has experienced foot problems often over the past few years. "
Michael Bush - Last year, Michael Bush ended the season as a Top 10 fantasy runner after Darren McFadden injured his foot and the big back had to take over. Bush has excellent size, good burst, and he's versatile. Now in Chicago, Bush's primary objective is to provide backfield support as a change of pace to Matt Forte. However, the Bears' offensive centerpiece is unhappy with his contract and he took the addition of Bush as a sign that the Bears are not willing to pay him. We believe Forte has an accurate take of this message. If Forte holds out during training camp, Bush's stock could skyrocket in the eyes of fantasy owners. Bush is highly capable of producing as a fantasy starter and a good mid-round pick whose average draft position increases the longer Forte's availability remains uncertain.
Matt Forte - Before Matt Forte broke his leg down the stretch, the Bears' offensive centerpiece proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is among the most versatile and dangerous backs in the NFL. However, the Bears refuse to pay him on par with these runners and opted to acquire Raiders committee back Michael Bush as both insurance for a possible Forte-holdout and as depth. Forte remains disgruntled with the Bears organization and his teammates believe the star runner will not report to training camp. If a deal doesn't get worked out and this is the case, there will be an increased likelihood that Forte will not get into sufficient football shape to start the season and this has often contributed to injuries that derailed the seasons of other backs opting to holdout as a negotiation tactic. If Forte and the Bears reach a deal before camp, Forte is at worst a strong, No. 2 runner for fantasy lineups if he has to share some of the load with Bush. If Forte holds out for any longer than a week, he becomes an increasingly dangerous option for fantasy owners.
Trent Richardson - There's a reason Cleveland got scared by a simple rumor of Tampa Bay looking to trade up and moved up one spot to grab Trent Richardson in the 2012 draft. Richardson is an elite combination of size, speed, and durability. He can break a big run or simply wear teams down at four or five yards a clip. Richardson enters a great situation for fantasy purposes as Cleveland doesn't have a back as physically dominant as him or as accomplished as many other teams who employ running back by committee approaches. The only things that could potentially keep Richardson from being a Top 10 back right out of the gate are game scripts (Cleveland was often behind last year and abandoned the run early) and schedule (six games against fellow AFC North stalwarts Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh). Even with those potential hurdles to overcome, Richardson has a Top 5 RB ceiling based on his talent and situation. His floor, driven by the factors mentioned above, is simply a pedestrian flex play --- in the #25 RB range.
David Wilson - When Brandon Jacobs signed in San Francisco, it was clear the Giants would need to address running back depth in the draft, and they did so by selecting David Wilson in the first round. Wilson, a 5'9", 209-pound dynamo out of Virginia Tech, has a build very similar to starter Ahmad Bradshaw - which probably wasn't a coincidence. Footballguys.com's own Matt Waldman ranked Wilson as the 4th best rookie running back prospect in this year's Rookie Scouting Portfolio, suggesting that Wilson may be the most talented runner to ever come out of Virginia Tech. Waldman believes Wilson possesses the ability to be a feature back at the NFL level, provided he fixes some notable weaknesses. It's those weaknesses that make Wilson's 2012 fantasy prospects difficult to decipher. Wilson has a tendency to be indecisive at the point of attack, and will have to break himself of the instinct to always break runs outside. He also has to protect the ball, because his collegiate fumbling problems will absolutely not be tolerated by Giants head coach Tom Coughlin. The good news is Wilson's weaknesses are not insurmountable --- star running backs like Jamaal Charles and LeSean McCoy had similar issues at the point of attack coming into the league, and are now elite playmakers. With Ahmad Bradshaw's injury history, Wilson could be forced into the lineup far sooner than expected, and that makes him worth a roster spot in redraft leagues.

WR Summary:
We see all your starters at receiver as below average. Wes Welker is our #17 ranked receiver, Miles Austin is #21, and we have Vincent Brown 58th.

We might suggest adding a bit more depth here.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Wes Welker ranked as high as second, which would make him an above average first receiver. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "Another year, another 100+ receptions are in store for Tom Brady's favorite wide receiver, Wes Welker. "
Miles Austin is ranked #6 by some of our writers, which would make him a great second receiver and even a legitimate WR1. Mark Wimer reasons, "I love the Cowboy's offense to put up big numbers, but with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Kevin Ogletree around to provide additional targets for Tony Romo, I don't see a return to elite numbers for Austin during 2012. However, if Dez Bryant gets suspended due to the pending domestic violence charges (he reportedly slapped his own mother around), Austin may get a bigger slice of the receptions than he would otherwise have - Austin is on the move up my board and Bryant is going down due to the unsavory situation Bryant has caused. "
Some members of our staff have Vincent Brown ranked as high as 46th. Jason Wood defends his high ranking as follows: "A number of scouts I respect have told me Brown is the best receiver on the Chargers roster. I'm not willing to go that far, yet, but it's fair to say that Robert Meachem is unproven in his new role as the go-to guy and Malcom Floyd can never stay healthy for a full season. Given Rivers' accuracy, Brown has an opportunity to emerge later this season. He's someone to target in deep leagues or to keep on a short list for early waiver claims."
Miles Austin - Austin needs to be careful, or he's at risk of no longer being considered a Top 10 wide receiver. That criticism may be premature, but the reality is Austin has regressed in back-to-back seasons after earning a big contract extension after his monstrous 2009 campaign. At his best, we know Austin can be a true difference maker --- witness his 81 receptions for 1,320 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2009. But since then, Austin's yards-per-reception have fallen from 16.3 to 15.1 to 13.5 and his receptions have declined from 81 to 69 to 43. The good news is that all is not lost, far from it. Last year's declines were at least partly to blame on injury, as Austin's hamstrings kept him out of six games. Underneath the surface, Austin's receptions per game were solid (4.3) as was his touchdown production (7 scores in 10 games). The bottom line is that Austin very much remains an elite receiver. He's got excellent size (6'3", 215 lbs.), is aggressive at the point of attack, and has been among the NFC's leaders in yards-after-the-catch since becoming a full-time starter. With Dez Bryant lining up opposite him, Austin won't have to contend with consistent double teams, and as long as the hamstring issues are behind him, you can expect a bounce back season. Comfortably slot Austin as a low end WR1 or high end WR2 this year.
Vincent Brown - Vincent Brown showed promise as a rookie last season. He has the strength and toughness to catch the ball in traffic, and can find the soft spot in a zone. He should get playing time in three-receiver sets, and will likely get more targets in 2012 than he did as a rookie. The fact that he will likely be no better than the fifth target in the passing game, however --- after Antonio Gates, Robert Meachem, Malcom Floyd, and Ryan Mathews --- significantly limits his potential. He is good insurance for owners who draft Malcom Floyd, and will likely go between rounds 12 and 14 in most 12 team drafts.
Wes Welker - Welker signed his tender and will be attending OTAs but the long term contract talks have become a distraction. Don't worry though, because once he hits the field, it's all put aside. Welker is one of Tom Brady's most productive targets and will get his share of attention. Yes, Brandon Lloyd will pull some targets away from Welker, but he also gives defenses something else to worry about and focus on, leaving Welker to roam free. If Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez didn't hurt his numbers (and given his career highs in yards, touchdowns and targets, they didn't), Brandon Lloyd certainly won't.

TE Summary:
Tony Gonzalez is viable but below average as a starting tight end (we have him ranked #9). We're also not too fired up about Coby Fleener as a backup.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Tony Gonzalez ranked as high as fourth, which would make him an above average first tight end. Jeff Pasquino defends his high ranking as follows: "Gonzalez does not have a ton left in the tank, but even an older veteran tight end who is destined for the Hall of Fame is better than most younger options in the league. Gonzalez can work defenses to get open and find soft spots in the secondary, settle down in them and catch 10-15 yard gainers for QB Matt Ryan, especially in key situations. Gonzalez offers little yards after the catch but he is still good enough to catch 70+ balls and score a half-dozen or so touchdowns this year. He's always in great shape and has missed just one game in 10 years."
Some members of our staff have Coby Fleener ranked as high as 10th, which would make him a great second tight end and even a legitimate TE1. Jeff Pasquino defends his high ranking as follows: "Fleener gets to hit the ground running as the starter for the Colts, plus he has his collegiate QB under center with Andrew Luck in Indy. Fleener was already regarded as the top tight end in his draft class and now he will see plenty of targets over the middle just like at Stanford."
Coby Fleener - Coby Fleener was drafted by the Colts in the second round to be a trusted outlet receiver for new quarterback Andrew Luck. Fleener came from Stanford as well and he and Luck already have a tremendous rapport. Fleener is athletic and in the mold of Dallas Clark. He is a good route runner and possesses good concentration and hands. He does not possess overwhelming speed or athleticism but he should provide a consistent option for Luck right away. Like many rookie tight ends Fleener will need to spend time working on his blocking technique but we expect him to be on the field from Week 1 for the Colts. While he isn't likely to be in the top tier of tight ends in most formats he is certainly worth a look once the top tight ends have been drafted.
Tony Gonzalez - Even after 15 years in the league, Tony Gonzalez is still a perennial Top 5 tight end. He has reached that distinction in five of the last six years as he plays well into the twilight of his career. Last year he caught 80 passes for 875 yards and 7 TDs. Atlanta could have looked at a tight end in the draft, but decided to focus on other positions. This suggests that they will continue to utilize Gonzalez in their offense once again. Not only is Gonzalez defying his age, but he is doing so as one of the healthiest and most physically fit players in the league. In 15 seasons, he has missed just one game and he has 100+ targets in nine consecutive years. He may not be the best tight end in the league anymore, but he is definitely a safe option, who is currently being drafted as the 11th Tight End off the board.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Igama Sweaty Palms

QB: Aaron Rodgers, Robert Griffin III, Carson Palmer
RB: Doug Martin, Frank Gore, Ryan Williams, Jahvid Best
WR: Greg Jennings, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Pierre Garcon, Justin Blackmon
TE: Rob Gronkowski
PK:
Overview:
The quarterback position looks good, and we like your overall strength at the tradionally less important positions as well. Despite not being strong at running back and receiver, we think this team should be the league favorite or very close to it.
Nevertheless, we feel compelled to mention that the RB and WR positions make us a bit nervious and are likely to require some attention throughout the year. We'd feel much better if we knew you were committed to scooping up 2012's breakout players at RB and WR. Getting one or more of these would take this team to the next level.
Players we particularly like on this team include Carson Palmer and Robert Griffin III. We have both these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 92 percent chance of making the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 4 of 2011:
Aaron Rodgers vs. DEN: 408 passing yards, 6 TD
Pierre Garcon vs. TB: 146 receiving yards, 2 TD
Frank Gore vs. PHI: 139 combined yards, 1 TD
Greg Jennings vs. DEN: 103 receiving yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Aaron Rodgers should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #1 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 5.1 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
We also love Robert Griffin III as a backup. In fact, we think he's good enough to be someone's starting quarterback in this league. With Rodgers in place as your starter, he's something of a luxury for you. If he plays like we expect, you should be able to get good value for him in a trade after quarterback injuries hit some of your opponents.
Note that Rodgers and Griffin III have the same bye week. We don't necessarily disapprove of this if you like both of them, especially since you've got Palmer to cover it, but don't forget about it.
A quick note about the Rodgers/Greg Jennings hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.
Carson Palmer is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have Doug Martin ranked at #16 and Frank Gore ranked at #19.
Ryan Williams is a little below average as a third running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Jahvid Best is the right player for the job.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have Doug Martin ranked as high as eighth, which would make him a fine first running back. Jeff Tefertiller defends his high ranking as follows: "Martin was drafted in the first round to be the three-down RB the Tampa Bay offense needs. New coaching staff brought in Martin to be the bell cow in a run-oriented offense. Blount may see a few carries here or there, but Martin is the one to own. Quarterback Josh Freeman needs the rookie to succeed and take the pressure off he and the passing game. "
Frank Gore is ranked #7 by some of our writers, which would make him a great second running back and even a legitimate RB1. Andrew Garda reasons, "I'm way high on Gore compared to the majority of the staff and that's fine. I was on Maurice Jones-Drew last year and that bore out. Every year it seems we overlook Gore and every year he performs. He had his highest yards total since 2006 last year and while his receptions dropped, I believe they will climb back up, if not to the heights of his 50+ catch seasons, to a respectable 35-40. He'll be a very good value later than this as everyone overlooks him again."
Jahvid Best is ranked #37 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average fourth running back. David Baker reasons, "When healthy, Best is awfully dynamic and capable of a ton of receiving yards too. Could be somewhat of a sleeper this year with a nice upside."

WR Summary:
We like Pierre Garcon as a third WR, but we consider your starting receivers, as a group, to be a little below par. Greg Jennings is our 14th ranked WR, Darrius Heyward-Bey is #27, and we have Garcon 30th.
Justin Blackmon is a little below average as a fourth receiver.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Greg Jennings as high as #3, which would make him an above average first receiver. Mark Wimer's take: "Two Green Bay wide receivers in the top six on my fantasy wide receiver board? Yes. The Packers ARE that good at passing the football. He's got plenty of time to recover from his recent concussion, which isn't of the really severe variety of concussion according to multiple reports out of Green Bay. "
Some of our staffers have Justin Blackmon as high as #24, which would make him a great fourth receiver and even a legitimate WR2. Jeff Pasquino's take: "Justin Blackmon enters his rookie season with some of the deck stacked against him. Jacksonville has issues upon issues in the passing game with weakness all around at wide receiver and quarterback. Blackmon is gifted enough to get 5-6 catches and 60-75 yards most games, which should give him a strong first season."

TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Rob Gronkowski is an elite tight end. We have him ranked second overall at the position. He's about 2.8 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Gronkowski, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Perdew Pulverizers

QB: Cam Newton, Alex Smith, Andrew Luck
RB: Arian Foster, Marshawn Lynch, Donald Brown, C.J. Spiller, Ben Tate
WR: A.J. Green, Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, Reggie Wayne
TE: Vernon Davis, Dallas Clark
PK:
Overview:
Congratulations! You seem to have grabbed quality players at every turn of this draft. It's rare indeed to be better than the average team at the three core positions (quarterback, running back and receiver), but we think this team is.
You must be among the favorites in this league and have positioned yourself to grab one of the playoff spots. But before you start engraving the trophy, realize that the draft is not the end of the story. Things can and do go wrong, so you need to remain diligent throughout the year to ensure you remain strong until the playoffs.
Players we particularly like on this team include Alex Smith, Donald Brown, A.J. Green, Steve Smith, and Cam Newton. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line: This team is a virtual lock to go to the playoffs.

In any event, we wish you the best of luck. Here's hoping all your weeks are like week 13 of 2011:
Cam Newton vs. TB: 204 passing yards, 54 rushing yards, 4 TD
Marshawn Lynch vs. PHI: 148 combined yards, 2 TD
Arian Foster vs. ATL: 152 combined yards, 1 TD
A.J. Green vs. PIT: 87 receiving yards, 1 TD
C.J. Spiller vs. TEN: 102 combined yards, 1 TD

QB Summary:
We expect Cam Newton to be a solid starter. According to our projections, he's the #4 QB, so you should be better off than most teams in the starting quarterback slot.
Alex Smith, who we have rated as the #14 QB, is a nice backup and could conceivably emerge as either a starter for your team or, if Newton plays as expected, some tempting trade bait for teams with quarterback troubles.
Incidentally, Smith has what we project as a good matchup (NYG) during Newton's bye.
A quick note about the Newton/Steve Smith hookup you've got here: while we think the effect of the quarterback/receiver hookup has largely been exaggerated in fantasy football circles, it does have a tendency to make your team somewhat more inconsistent than comparable scoring duos from different NFL teams. But if you like the players at both ends of the connection, we do not see any need to make a change because of it.
Andrew Luck is an excellent depth pick, though you may not end up using him much.
Andrew Luck - Andrew Luck was drafted first overall to be the face of the Colts' franchise and the leader of their offense for the foreseeable future. Luck was perhaps the most highly rated quarterback prospect in 25 years and brings a unique blend of intelligence, leadership, and athletic ability to the Colts huddle. While he does not yet possess the pure arm-strength of a player like Drew Brees or Tom Brady, he can make all of the necessary throws and understands when to take a chance downfield and when to be conservative. Luck is likely to struggle in his rookie season as he adjusts to the pace of the NFL game although he is just as likely to have moments where he looks like a fifth year veteran and commands the offense with apparent ease. While the Colts' running game is suspect, the receivers (led by Reggie Wayne) should provide a stable and experienced group of options for Luck to throw to. Luck should get better as the season progresses as he learns how to suit his strengths to the Colts offense. He is draftable as a backup quarterback in all formats.
Cam Newton - Cam Newton surprised a lot of people last year with his ability to make plays, especially with his arm. Most people were aware of his running ability and elusiveness in the pocket, but not many knew he could be so poised under center. He often waited for a play to develop and then proceeded to fire an accurate pass 20+ yards down field. He did this consistently all year long and was able to rush for a league record 14 touchdowns to go along with 706 rushing yards. He surpassed 4,000 yards passing and became the first rookie quarterback to do so in the history of the NFL. To say that he has expectations to fulfill in his second year is an understatement. Newton is a student of the game who puts in countless hours, not including practice time. It's very possible that he doesn't reach 14 rushing touchdowns in 2012, but his 21 touchdown passes is something that could easily be eclipsed if he continues to improve, develop and learn an offense that is catered to his skills. He has the pieces around him, plus an outstanding running game that will keep defenses from focusing on stopping any one particular facet to Carolina's offense. Newton led the Panthers to 30.8 points per game in their last seven games in 2011. If the second half of 2011 is indicative of how the 2012 season will unfold, we could be looking at a Top 5 offense this year. Newton is capable of scoring 2-3 touchdowns per game if not more, which could lean more on the passing end than the rushing end like last year. If he can grow into a quarterback that can score via the pass, his elite rushing ability could propel him to heights not yet seen from a fantasy perspective. That potential alone is what makes him a viable Top 5 fantasy quarterback. If he can learn to score with his arm first and let his athletic ability play a complimentary role, he could be the top quarterback in the league before we know it.
Alex Smith - Despite the fact that Alex Smith has had as many offensive systems as he's had years logged in the NFL, the 49ers quarterback had his best season to date in 2011, helping the team come within a quarter of the Super Bowl. The former No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft demonstrated improved decision-making, more effective freelancing skills at the line of scrimmage, and the ability to make big plays with his legs. Although the 49ers reportedly flirted with Peyton Manning this offseason, the team welcomed back Alex Smith and surrounded him with weapons to bolster the passing game. On pure talent alone, the trio of Mario Manningham, Michael Crabtree and Randy Moss might be among the best in the NFL. If they play to their potential, Smith has the receivers, the ground game, and the offensive line to lead a much improved offensive unit. It remains to be seen whether Smith can repeat his Top 20 quarterback performance of last season, but he should benefit from the presence of additional vertical threats and prosper, settling in as a mid-range QB2.

RB Summary:
Nice work here. We like both your starting running backs, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 4.6 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. Our projections have Arian Foster ranked at #1 and Marshawn Lynch ranked at #13.
Your bench also looks good. We love Donald Brown as a third running back.
Since you're strong at the position, you probably don't absolutely need to roster more than three players here. Stashing Ben Tate, however, is probably a wise move in case something happens to Foster. The rest might be considered expendable if you find you need roster space elsewhere.
Donald Brown - Donald Brown's third season in the league in 2011 finally began to capitalize on the promise that made him a first-round pick in 2009. He ran confidently and with power despite the Colts atrocious offense. He showed good balance running between the tackles and while he lacks the speed to break off large runs, he did manage to gain solid yardage when running outside. While Delone Carter will compete with Brown for the bulk of the Colts' carries this season, Brown's production in 2011 (combined with Carter's fumbling issues) should give the former UCONN Husky the inside track for the majority of the workload. Brown could potentially receive more than 200 touches and a fair number of touchdowns even if he does split the load with Carter. We think he will be a reasonable contributor this season and possesses a fair amount of upside should the Colts offense come together quickly.
Arian Foster - After missing the first two games of the season, Arian foster returned in Week 3 and proceeded to run wild over the rest of the league. In 13 games, Foster ran for 1224 yards and 12 touchdowns to go with 617 receiving yards and two touchdowns. Foster is completely comfortable in the Texans offense and seems to have cured the fumbling problems that plagued him in college. Foster's running style is powerful without absorbing too much contact. Despite the departure of tackle Eric Winston, Foster is still expected to be one of the top running backs in the league. Furthermore, his teammate Ben Tate is good enough to spell Foster so that the star ball-carrier doesn't wear down easily as the season progresses. He should be drafted near the top of every league and can be started with confidence in all formats.
Marshawn Lynch - In 2011, the former Bills running back played to the expectations he set as a star at Cal despite injuries along the Seahawks offensive line and at the quarterback and receiver positions. Marshawn Lynch's yard per carry average wasn't fantastic, but he wore out quality defenses and his yards after contact style and vision provided plenty of excitement. He carried this offense down the stretch and earned a new contract this past offseason. Some fantasy owners might be wary because of Lynch's past transgressions in Buffalo, but ability-wise he's unquestionably a No. 1 fantasy runner behind a young, and now healthy, offensive line with promise to develop into a quality unit as a run-first offense. Lynch is a at worst, a No. 2 fantasy runner in 2012.
C.J. Spiller - Spiller got his chance to start for the Bills in 2011 and he was a more than an able replacement. However, his weekly performances lacked consistency on a team that often trailed in games and forced to abandon the run. Spiller has enough size, explosiveness, and versatility to serve as a lead back in the same way that Reggie Bush was a Top 12 fantasy runner for the Dolphins. As long as returning veteran Fred Jackson plays to his ability after suffering a fractured fibula last November, Spiller will likely split duties with Jackson in a committee backfield. Because Jackson turns 31 this year, 2012 is Spiller's opportunity to solidify his place as the future of the Bills' backfield. Look to Spiller's 2012 production to meet expectations as a flex option with upside as a No.2 fantasy runner in redraft lineups. His dynasty value is likely to rise in 2013 if in 2012 he continues to flash the patience and big-play ability that he showed down the stretch of 2011.
Ben Tate - After starting his career with a horrific ankle injury, Ben Tate has rebounded to be one of the best backup running backs in the NFL. Tate is not as good of a receiver as Arian Foster and will remain the backup for the foreseeable future, but that doesn't mean he can't be productive in his own right. He excels in the Texans' zone blocking scheme and is productive both as a spot player and as an everydown ball carrier. Tate's 5.4 yards per attempt was a full yard better than starter Arian Foster and he shares Foster's stellar vision at finding holes and cutback lanes. Despite not being a starter, Tate is a very useful back for fantasy purposes and could rise to the top tier of the position should Foster be injured.

WR Summary:
Nice work here. We like all your starting receivers, as our projections indicate that they give you a combined 1.4 point-per-game advantage over an average opponent in this league. A.J. Green is our fifth ranked WR, Steve Smith is #11, and we have Mike Wallace 22nd.
Your bench also looks good. Tough to do better than Reggie Wayne at WR4.
A.J. Green - The phrase "making the leap" is used so often in sports to describe a player who jumps from inexperienced young player to elite level at his position. However, A.J. Green arguably made "the leap" in his rookie season. He has size and speed that rival nearly any other receiver in the league. Green spent a part of this offseason in Atlanta working out with fellow superfreaks Cam Newton and Calvin Johnson. Green will also spend time working out with Larry Fitzgerald, who has the Midas Touch when it comes to tutoring young receivers (Sidney Rice prior to his breakout year, Dwayne Bowe and Eric Decker last offseason). Green's ceiling is that of a Top 3 WR. His floor is a middle-of-the-pack #2 WR.
Steve Smith - The addition of Cam Newton and his ability to make plays allowed Steve Smith to burst onto the scene once again. Smith never lost his edge as one of the game's best wide receivers - he just didn't have the right quarterback that could take advantage of his skills. When Cam Newton took center stage, Smith followed and had one of the best seasons of his career catching 79 passes for 1,394 yards and seven touchdowns. Some people are concerned that his age (33 years old) will cause him to slow down sooner rather than later, but Smith is one of those players that plays with controlled, youthful abandon. His love for the game and desire to always be great will keep him playing under his age for a long time. He is a major contributor on the Panthers offense, which isn't expected to change in 2012. Last year, Smith's 129 targets was 40 more than the next closest receiver on the team (TE Greg Olsen) and 54 more than the next closest wide receiver (Legedu Naanee). Smith currently has an ADP of WR15, which is great value, considering he was ranked 6th last year in standard Footballguys scoring format. There is talk that Smith may be used more in the slot in 2012, which makes sense, since Smith is an excellent receiver after the catch who can be elusive in open space. The slot position would allow him to use his separation skills to his advantage. Ultimately his ceiling could be very similar to Wes Welker numbers if used in that same role. Smith is a great wide receiver to target in the third round of your draft who is capable of many 100-yard games. If the news of him playing in the slot turns out to be reality, he could be a big surprise this year that could result in a Top 5 finish.
Mike Wallace - There aren't many players in football with the speed that Mike Wallace possesses. That speed allows him to be a big-time fantasy asset. Wallace, however, can be very hit-or-miss. He racked up 72 catches, 1,193 yards, and eight touchdowns last season, but he didn't have a 100-yard receiving game after Week 7. What Wallace lacks in week-to-week consistency he more than makes up for with his ability to have huge games. Wallace would be a great asset to any fantasy team but particularly those in a "best ball" format that incentivizes big play players. One thing with him to keep an eye on is his contract situation. He was a restricted free agent this offseason but garnered no offers so he will return to the Steelers. He still desires a long-term deal, though, and doesn't yet have it. Wallace's fantasy ceiling is a Top 5 WR as Antonio Brown should make defenses focus less on him. His floor is that he comes in unhappy, misses multiple games in a holdout (unlikely, though, because then he loses money and his year of service toward unrestricted free agency), and can't grasp the new Todd Haley offense. He's still a #3 fantasy WR at absolute worst if healthy.
Reggie Wayne - After flirting with leaving the Colts during free agency, Reggie Wayne ultimately re-signed with the team and will once again serve as the offense's primary receiver. Wayne will turn 34 years old this season and is likely on the downside of his career. That said, he still managed 75 receptions and 960 yards despite the Colts historically awful passing game in 2011. He is an excellent route runner and has excellent hands so his production in 2012 is likely dependent on the play of Andrew Luck more than his own skill set. While Wayne may not ever have another 100 reception, 1,200 yard season as he has in the past, it would be a mistake to think that he is not still one of the top receivers in football. Wayne has not missed a game to injury since 2002 and will be the Colts primary downfield threat again this season.

TE Summary:
Vernon Davis should be above average as a starting tight end. We have him ranked fifth overall at the position. We don't see Dallas Clark as an adequate second tight end. An upgrade here would be nice, but if Davis holds up, it won't matter.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some of our staffers have Vernon Davis as high as #3, which would make him an above average first tight end. Mark Wimer's take: "He has the talent to be a dominant tight end in this league, but his team was 31st in passing attempts last year (451). Davis won't overtake Jimmy Graham (662 passing attempts last year in New Orleans) or Rob Gronkowski (612) in fantasy production, even if we see an uptick in the number of passing attempts from the 49ers. "
Dallas Clark is ranked #12 by some of our writers, which would make him a great second tight end and even a legitimate TE1. Matt Waldman reasons, "Happy to see Clark land in a situation where the culture is changing. Some people may feel that the Buccaneers are making a mistake to trade Winslow, but Greg Schiano is cleaning house of the veterans that weren't effective leaders, on the down side of their careers, or people that don't fit the culture. Winslow falls into one of these categories. Clark is a hard-nosed football player capable of out-producing Winslow if healthy. If he gets hurt, he probably comes at a price that it wasn't a huge loss and the team will move forward with its committee of tight ends that include Luke Stocker and Zach Pianalto. "
Dallas Clark - Make no mistake, there was interest in Dallas Clark before the trade of Kellen Winslow to Seattle for a seventh-round pick. The addition of Clark to the Bucs offense gives them a veteran tight end without the drama. Clark hasn't been fantasy relevant since 2009 after a wrist injury kept him out several games in 2010, followed by the Colts season that "wasn't" in 2011. He is definitely in the twilight of his career, but he showed enough at the end of the season last year that suggests he can still play with a passion and be a productive force on the field. Clark is expected to be the Buccaneers main tight end threat, however second year pro Luke Stocker will also command some playing time as well. If all goes as planned, Clark should finish somewhere among the Top 15 tight ends.
Vernon Davis - The best athlete at the position award goes to Vernon Davis hands down, but he hasn't been consistently featured like the other elite tight ends in the league, thanks to a carousel of offensive coordinators that have traveled through San Francisco for the length of Davis' career. With the addition of Mario Manningham, Randy Moss, and a bevy of draft picks at the skill positions over the past two years, Davis is now surrounded by enough talent to be used as imaginatively as his peers at the top of the fantasy pile. Davis is a lock as a No. 1 tight end, but his upside as an elite tight end remains variable.

Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.

: Viall Vigilante

QB: Tom Brady, Jay Cutler
RB: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Shonn Greene, Stevan Ridley, Isaiah Pead
WR: Roddy White, Brandon Marshall, DeSean Jackson, Randall Cobb
TE: Jimmy Graham
PK:
Overview:
We'll start by complimenting you on your strength at quarterback, receiver, and tight end. As you know, it's very difficult in a competitive league to assemble a team that is strong at QB, RB, and WR, so just about every team will have a weakness. As you probably suspect, we perceive yours to be at running back.
In 2012, that's not an instant fantasy team killer like it might have been five years ago. And in this particular case, we absolutely think you're strong enough elsewhere to overcome it. You've definitely got a good team here, but we'd feel better if we knew you were committed to keeping an eye out for the 2012 version of 2010's Peyton Hillis or LeGarrette Blount or 2009's Ricky Williams, Jamaal Charles, or Fred Jackson.
Players we particularly like on this team include DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, and Stevan Ridley. We have all these guys ranked ahead of where they are typically being drafted.
Bottom line:

With great inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With good inseason management, we think you have about a 99 percent chance of making the playoffs.
With average inseason management, we think you have a 88 percent chance of making the playoffs.

QB Summary:
You don't need us to tell you this, but we'll tell you anyway: Tom Brady should ensure that your production at the quarterback position is among the best in the league. We have him as the #3 QB according to your scoring rules, and we figure he gives you about a 3.2 point-per-game advantage over an average starting QB.
Jay Cutler, who we have rated as the #18 QB, is a fine backup.
Incidentally, Cutler has what we project as a neutral matchup (TEN) during Brady's bye.
Tom Brady - Astonishingly, Tom Brady was somehow able to accrue more weapons in his arsenal over the offseason. With Brandon Lloyd arriving to joing forces with Wes Welker and the terror twins at tight end---Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski---it may almost seem unfair. While Brady may be on the long downslope towards the end of his career, it's still a long way from over and he continues to function at a high level despite little run game and problems on the offensive line. His numbers may come down---so many quarterbacks seemed to benefit from a lack of an offseason which left defenses reeling---but he will still end the year as a top ten fantasy quarterback as he has for virtually his entire career.
Jay Cutler - Jay Cutler missed six games last year, but it happened after he influenced former offensive coordinator Mike Martz to make changes to his trademark offensive system that has always led to a lot of punishment for its quarterbacks even when the offensive line was a good unit. The Bears didn't have the luxury and Cutler was dodging missiles early in the season and by most accounts doing an amazing job placing the ball in position for his receivers to make plays. This year, Martz is out and new coordinator and former Vikings head coach Mike Tice takes over. Tice is a former NFL tight end and favors using the position in his offensive sets. The Bears will continue to use shorter drops, adding more max-protection personnel that incorporate two-tight end sets to help keep Cutler upright. Moreover, the Bears have added former Cutler teammate Brandon Marshall and rookies Alshon Jeffery and Evan Rodriguez to the offense. Marshall and Jeffery are anti-Martz receivers because they thrive in situations where the quarterback can squeeze the ball into tight coverage and let them play a physical style of football. Rodriguez has enough speed to stretch the seam vertically and can line up in the slot or the backfield. Cutler is a good bet to outplay his preseason ranking and produce as a borderline top-five fantasy quarterback in 2012.

RB Summary:
We see both your starters at running back as below average. Our projections have BenJarvus Green-Ellis ranked 23rd and Shonn Greene ranked at #24.
Your bench looks good and should help offset the unexciting starting unit. Stevan Ridley should serve as a very solid third running back.
Because you're not particularly strong overall at the position, adding some depth here was a good idea. But we're not convinced Isaiah Pead is the right player for the job.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Some members of our staff have BenJarvus Green-Ellis ranked as high as 19th. Mark Wimer defends his high ranking as follows: "He'll be the grind-it-out back for the Bengals, but they play in a very tough division against high-quality defenses. He'll see a lot of touches, but the level of production a fantasy owner gets from those touches won't be game-breaking most of the time. "
Shonn Greene is ranked #13 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average second running back. Mark Wimer reasons, "He is going to get a lot of carries, but his relative lack of scoring (two, two, and six rushing TDs the last three years) forces him down my board. In some good news, though, Greene has seen an increased number of passing targets (4, 24, 41) and receptions (0, 16, 30) in each of his seasons, making him viable as a running back #2 in the PPR paradigm. He is expected to see a heavy diet of touches for the Jets this year as their 'grinder' back. "
Isaiah Pead is ranked #41 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average fourth running back. Jeff Tefertiller reasons, "Pead is more than a complementary back to the venerable Steven Jackson. He looks to be Jackson's successor and could have a growing role as the season progresses. With two rookie receivers starting for the Rams, expect a reliance on the running game. "
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - From undrafted free agent to low-on-the-totem-pole guy in a committee, BenJarvus Green-Ellis has worked hard to become a full-time starter. Now that he's in Cincinnati, he'll have his shot to lead on a balanced offense instead of being one of many running back options in a passing offense. If he holds up all year, expect over 250 carries for the first time in his career. After all, this team gave Cedric Benson 273 last season. His ceiling is probably around Benson's 2010 season when he finished 16th among running backs in standard scoring leagues. Assuming good health, his floor is not being able to exploit base defenses (as opposed to the nickel defenses he frequently went up against in New England) and being part of a 1A-1B situation with Bernard Scott. This would make Green-Ellis just a "flex-worthy" player in fantasy lineups.
Shonn Greene - Greene broke the 1,000-yard mark but by the reaction of fans and fantasy owners you'd have thought he drop-kicked their dog. Sure he broke 1,000 yards, but 1) that's not terribly impressive anymore and 2) he looked less than outstanding doing it. LaDainian Tomlinson is gone, so Greene theoretically will get more work but the truth is that the Jets will find ways to use at least Joe McKnight in addition to Greene and if Greene starts slow as he often does, McKnight or Bilal Powell or a combination might take away his carries. At least Greene has started to be involved more in the passing game as his receiving abilities and pass blocking have improved. Still, he just looks really average in everything he does. The safe bet is he will remain a low end number two back, and a safer number three or flex option.
Isaiah Pead - Isaiah Pead is a talented running back with potential to develop into a lead back for the Rams within a year or two. He played in a spread offense at the University of Cincinnati and demonstrated strong skill as a receiver and great potential as a pass protector. He has good change of direction and the speed to occasionally make big plays when he bounces the right attempt to the outside. He needs to become a better decision-maker as a between the tackles runner. If called upon, he could produce as a low-end fantasy starter if Steven Jackson gets hurt. He'll serve as a change of pace, in-game substitute while Jackson carries most of the load.
Stevan Ridley - Stevan Ridley will get the first shot at carrying the ball as the lead back in New England. He looked solid in 2011, showing off his great burst and a disciplined running style. The Patriots don't feature just one back and tend to go with the hot hand, something that is volatile on a game-to-game basis. Ridley is a very determined hard worker but it remains to be seen if that helps him win more carries than most starters do in New England. Shane Vereen may take some carries away from Ridley, but Ridley is a decent player to stash away as a RB4 with upside and can be acquired for a late round selection.

WR Summary:
Your starting receiver group is a strength, particularly Brandon Marshall as a second receiver. We figure them at a combined 1.7 points per game better than an average opponent in this league. Roddy White is our sixth ranked WR, Marshall is #9, and we have DeSean Jackson 19th.
We see Randall Cobb as an average fourth receiver.
Note that the above "thoughts" were generated by David Dodds's projections. Others have different takes:
Roddy White is ranked #4 by some of our writers, which would make him an above average first receiver. David Baker reasons, "So, Roddy White thinks the ball will be spread out more this year, lessening his value. I'm not buying it. Julio Jones is very good, but White is better. 90+ receptions, 1,100+ yards and 8+ TDs might be his downside. Sounds good to me for my WR1, considering he has upside above those numbers."
Some of our staffers have Randall Cobb as high as #38, which would make him an above average fourth receiver. Sigmund Bloom's take: "With Greg Jennings suffering on the sidelines due to a concussion for two weeks now, the possibility that Cobb plays a big role this year is getting larger. One more concussion could sideline Jennings for a while. Cobb has been having a big camp, and the surrounding and talent are there for a breakout at any time."

Randall Cobb - Last year's rookie draft pick had some of the most exciting plays in football as a return specialist. Randall Cobb has Percy Harvin-like skill in the open field and he was skilled enough conceptually to learn all three receiver positions in training camp. With veteran Donald Driver just trying to hold onto a roster spot and James Jones lacking the same caliber of explosiveness as Cobb, the second-year receiver from Kentucky is a good bet to earn the No. 3 role in the Green Bay offense, which means he could become a solid flex-option with No. 3 fantasy starter upside in 2012.
DeSean Jackson - Last year was an absolute train wreck for DeSean Jackson; he let dissatisfaction with his contract affect his on-field and off-field behavior. His attitude and effort were so in question that Head Coach Andy Reid suspended him for a game to send a message. As the 2011 season finished up, many thought Jackson had played his last down in Philadelphia. But the Eagles brass didn't want to lose a young talent like Jackson for nothing, and opted to place the franchise tag on him. They subsequently came to terms on a 5-year, $47M extension with $15M in guarantees. With his contract situation resolved, there is hope that Jackson can regain the focus that made him the NFL's first ever Pro Bowler at two positions (returner and receiver). Jackson has two elite skills --- speed and open field vision. Get the ball into his hands in space and he can make huge plays, which is why he's averaged almost 18 yards per reception and led the league in 50+ yard plays over the last four years. Jackson has dealt with concussions as both a collegian and pro athlete, and that's a concern particularly for long-term minded dynasty owners, but redraft owners shouldn't fret --- for all the talk of his injury risk, Jackson had played in 59 games in four seasons. Jackson's value is tied heavily to his ability to break big plays, which means he's going to be less consistent from week to week than other receivers in his class. Jackson is a good bet to deliver Top 15 fantasy value this year but his points will come in bunches, which means you only want to target him if he's your 2nd or 3rd receiving option.
Brandon Marshall - Brandon Marshall has been reunited with his former quarterback Jay Cutler in Chicago in what should be, on paper, a coup for his value. Marshall and Cutler combined successfully in Denver, where Marshall posted his first 100 reception season. Marshall and Cutler have a sixth sense on the field, and Cutler will often trust the talent of Marshall to bail him out of an errant or ill-advised throw. The new offensive scheme being installed will suit Cutler more, who reportedly has been given a freer reign in terms of play selection. Marshall will benefit from this as Cutler's favorite target. An encore of their Denver days may happen in Chicago in 2012. Marshall's off-field transgressions are always a concern, but he never finished below a Top 10 receiver with Jay Cutler as his quarterback and the upside of this tandem is too promising to pass up. Marshall has the talent to return to Top 10 wide receiver status in 2012.
Roddy White - Despite the emergence of rookie standout Julio Jones and the ever present talents of Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White not only led the Falcons, he led the whole NFL with 179 targets in 2011. In addition to that, he reached 100+ receptions for the second year in a row. He and a Matt Ryan are very tight, both on the field and off. Julio Jones may be an up and coming young wide receiver that is capable of putting up solid numbers, but White will always be Matt Ryan's go-to target as long as he is healthy. Since 2009, Roddy White leads all wide receivers in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving first downs, and receiving touchdowns on third and fourth down plays. He remains a strong WR1 this season who will consistently put up solid numbers on a weekly basis regardless of how well Julio Jones performs. Also worth noting, White keeps himself in excellent shape year round and as result has not missed a game in his seven-year career.
TE Summary:
As you are well aware, Jimmy Graham is an elite tight end. We have him ranked first overall at the position. He's about 3.1 points per game better than an average starting TE in this league. Given your league rules and the presence of Graham, your decision to roll with just one tight end is a reasonable one.
Jimmy Graham - Jimmy Graham burst onto the scene last year as the Saints primary tight end option, compared to seasons prior when two tight ends were more prominent in the Saints offense. Graham's athleticism and strong desire to compete was a perfect match for Drew Brees and the Saints prolific offense. Graham finished the season with better numbers than some elite wide receivers and is expected to pick up right where he left off. His 99 receptions for 1,310 yards and 11 touchdowns cements him as one of the top two tight ends in the league, along with Rob Gronkowski. Graham won't be able to sneak up on anyone in the draft. If you're interested in acquiring the Saints biggest offensive threat, you'll have to do so in the second, if not the first round. The tight end position has seen an increase across the board over the last few years, however it's not common to find a player who has the whole package on such a potent offense. Graham is worth a high draft pick, considering how much better he is than the majority of the field at the position.
Kicker Summary:
Don't forget to pick up a kicker before the season starts.